Diary

State of the Race: Pennsylvania!!!

Ramussen has a new poll showing Obama’s lead plummeting to four points. That is down from seven last week and thirteen earlier in the month. According to Rasmussen, only 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats are supporting Obama. By comparison, Kerry won 85% of the Democratic vote in 2004. That spells trouble for Obama.

Also, the often reliable Mason Dixon poll also has Obama leading by four points as well. Strategic Vision has Obama leading by five and even the ludicrous Morning Call poll has Obama leading by eight.

This is a remarkable shift. All polls are trending heavily towards McCain. Democratic Governor, Fast Eddie Rendell is too desperate to play head games with Palin’s popularity. He is freaking out and publicly stating that Sarah is a threat who has enthused the base and is drawing massive crowds.

The early voting patterns are not conforming to the predictive models used by the polling companies. Compared to 2004, young voters are not coming out in substantially higher numbers nor are Democratic voters in general. The weighting of polls to reflect stronger Democratic turnout appears to be flawed. This pattern should hold true in Pennsylvania.

As we all know, it’s all about enthusiasm, enthusiasm, enthusiasm. John and Sarah have worked Pennsylvania hard. Crowds are jacked and Sarah has motivated huge blocks of women and traditional and non-traditional Republicans. Biden has drawn little attention and Obama has largely ignored the state. Obama is not even attending a Pennsylvania event during the closing week.

Most important of all, I’d like to bring your attention to this story. People like this are the real reason we will win Pennsylvania.