Diary

A More Accurate Way To Assess Polling Data

Here are some new polls released over the last three days on some of the most closely watched Senate, Governor and House races.

New Hampshire Senate:

  • UNH = Sununu -4
  • Rasmussen = Sununu +7

Colorado Senate:

  • Rasmussen = Schaffer -2

Minnesota Senate:

  • Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP = Coleman +7

Oregon Senate:

  • Survey USA = Gordon Smith -2

Washington Governor:

  • Rasmussen = Rossi +6
  • Strategic Vision = Rossi +2
  • Survey USA = Rossi -2

Pennsylvania 11th:

  • Franklin & Marshall = Barletta +9 over Kanjorski

All of the above races are considered bellwether races. A lot of money and attention is being paid to each of them. Each individual poll is rather meaningless. Collectively, however, they reveal no wholesale trend implicating a rejection of the Republican brand. If the Dems were hoping that 2008 would be a continuation of the sentiments of 2006, they were wrong. Quite the contrary, the Republicans appear to be gaining strength.

Sununu’s Lazarus act in New Hampshire is amazing. The Schaffer campaign was also left for dead. Rossi and Smith are showing amazing resiliency on the liberal West Coast. Barletta is proving that some of the House seats won in the Blue Tide of 2006 were apparitions. Coleman is separating himself now that people are actually paying attention.

One cannot discern the mood of the nation by looking at one poll or one race. But a closer look at all the polls during this trying week shows that things are really not that bad for Republicans. If one poll or one race looks askew, take a look at all the polls in the Presidential, Senatorial, Gubernatorial and House races to better ascertain the mood of the nation. Whatever that mood is right now, one thing is certain; it is much more favorable to Republicans than it has been in nearly four years.