Diary

Understanding the Birth Death model

The birth death model that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses is not the number of people born in the US vs. the number of people dying. What the B/D model tells us is the estimate of the number of jobs created in any month by newly formed companies v. the number of jobs lost by companies going out of business. How can they accurately figure out this number? The answer is: they can’t. This number is a pure guesstimate (fraud) or a fudging that the BLS can use to save the current administration’s skin when bad numbers present themselves.

Last month, BLS said that the net B/D number was 206,000 new jobs created by newly formed companies. If the BLS hadn’t reported this number, the net loss of jobs in May would have been (152K) instead of a positive 54K. In any monthly jobs report, they conveniently leave out the B/D number, a lie of omission.