1) If the Fed goes ahead with another backdoor stimulus in the form of QE III count on gold at $2000, gasoline retail at $5 to $6, and food staples up another 20% by March 2012.
2) 45 million people are on food stamps. This means that these families have no assets to speak of and a non-existent income or an income below the poverty level. BHO desperately needs the adult food stamp recipients to register to vote and to vote for him. However, because of rapidly rising food prices, their rationing stamps aren’t buying very much and BHO is powerless to raise the ration allotment.
3) Younger voting age urban dwellers who registered to vote and who bought the hype from the hope and change campaign are restless, unemployed, and without skills. Major disturbances in many cities, like the disturbances over the Memorial Day weekend are becoming problematic. This could be a long, hot unemployed violent summer in the city. Check back to see what happens over the 4th of July weekend.
4) Unemployment rates in key battleground states are still at historic levels. Florida is at 11%, Nevada at 12%, Ohio at 9%, NC at 9% and Michigan at 11%. Without some help from the construction and housing markets, these figures probably won’t budge by the time the Nov 2012 deadline approaches. The economy has to grow at a steady 6% rate in all of these states in order for the unemployment rate to decline by just 2%. The Fed has revised the growth figures to under 3% this year and a high of 4% in 2012.
5) For the next 12 to 17 months, BHO has to pick one of three directions. Right now, the WH and the Democrat controlled Senate are operating like a ship without a rudder. Choice one is to go with supply side measures that have been proposed by the GOP leadership, a revival of Reaganomics. Choice two is to go with doubling down on the Keynesian solutions of Reich and Krugman or at least proposing more federal spending, another trillion dollar stimulus, jobs work programs and directing the Fed to prime the pump then blaming the (R)’s for stonewalling his leadership and directing the blame on the GOP. Choice three, is to hide from choice one and choice two and to be distant(professorial) from the solutions. Choice one is the best choice for his re-election chances, but he will never retreat from his Marxist roots, so anything he chooses to do, he’ll fail to move the economy.