Diary

Debunking the no one can beat BHO in 2012 myth

Beware of Registered voter polling. Example: Quinnipiac did a poll in FL , polling 463 (R) out of 1193 registered voters. 550 (D) and the rest (I). This is a little too heavy on the (D) voters and not enough on the (I). Also, the percentages of registered voters per party is a bit optimistic on the (D) end because there was a gigantic increase of (D) registered voters in 2007-2008, who did not vote in 2010, but who still appear to be registered. This huge number of new registered voters was mainly in the minority and younger voter categories. While the African-American population is not necessarily mobile, the younger vote either minority or white is extremely mobile. The chances that these first time registered voters have moved to a new address since 2008 is very high.

Obama adviser David Axelrod said the campaign would “mount a major effort and it’s not just about registering new voters but it’s also reregistering people who have moved because there is a high degree of transiency among young people and often among minority voters. We want to make sure that not only new voters but people who have moved are registered again.” If they have moved, they are no longer registered to vote. First time registered voters most times do not understand that they must re-register to vote every time they move. Many of these people may show up to vote in 2012 believing that they are registered, but because they are in a new precinct, they aren’t on the list. They will be able to vote by provisional ballot, but when the canvassing board reviews the ballots, these ballots will not be counted because the voter is not registered. So, the only polls probably relevant leading up to the 2012 election are the polls that correctly distribute the I, D, and R vote and only include likely voters.

The (D)’s have a lot of work to do in the states that saw off the charts new voters in 2008. This wasn’t just a once in a lifetime increase, it was a once in a 250 year increase. In FL, NC, VA, MI, IN, NV and CO, the (D) party needs to make sure that those voters either re-register or are living in the same place. If they lose just 20% of those voters in these states, they won’t win the popular vote necessary to take the EV. My guess is that this is mission impossible because there is no Acorn and Rahm Emanuel to get the ground forces out there to go door to door to register voters. It is going to take the same thousands if not millions of volunteers that appeared in 2007-2008, to get the job done. They won’t be able to do it with a bunch of 20 somethings with I-pads and empty office space.