Diary

Florida in 2012

From Howard Dean: The West is a big cushion. If we win Florida, we win the whole thing, and Florida is very, very winnable,” Dean said in an interview.

From Debbie Schultz: (After Obama threw Israel under the bus)..Debbie Wasserman Schultz said, predicting Obama will win her home state.

“He sent a very strong signal by asking me to chair the DNC about how important a priority Florida is,” the Congresswoman said.

IN YOUR DREAMS:

Florida is my home state and has been for a long time. For those of you that don’t know, the Florida Legislature, house and senate, was controlled by the (D) s from the end of the Civil War until 1995. I knew a State legislator (R) in the late 80’s who told me that the (D)’s allowed them to sit in the last two rows of the auditorium, but they couldn’t say anything. The (D)’s had to allow them to vote on legislation, but that was about it.

The reason the FL legislature has been controlled by the (R)’s since then is twofold. First, crime in the late 80’s and early 90’s was completely out of control due to prison overcrowding and the drug trade. The (D)’s instead of keeping the worst of the worst in prison were releasing extremely violent offenders very early. A murderer or rapist could get out of prison in only a few years with the variety of gain time and good behavior time. Florida was the state of choice for some infamous criminals like Ted Bundy, Henry Lee Lucas, Aileen Wuornos and Ottis Toole: Ottis Toole was named the likely killer of John Walsh’s son, Adam.

The bad guys promptly got of prison and killed somebody else, sometimes a child. By 1994, the (R)’s told voters that they would keep the bad guys in prison for at least 85% of their sentences and were elected. Since then, crime has plummeted to the point where nearly 85% of arrests in most jurisdictions are for victimless crimes, like driving on a suspended license. The second reason that voters in FL return the (R) s to the legislature year after year is because the (R)’s have gained the reputation of good financial managers. Good financial management and low crime rates lead to re-election in FL.

Now keeping all this in mind, how the heck did a guy like BHO get the EV in FL in 2008? First, he only won by 2.38%. Second, 700K more people voted for Barry, than voted for Kerry in 2004. The (R) vote was about the same. 3.96 million For GWB and 4.04 million for McCain. In 2010, the (D)’s got 2.5 million votes and the (R)’s got 2.6 million votes in the governor and senate elections. This was a huge drop off in voter turnout for both parties, but more in line with the numbers from 2006.

So, where did the extra 700K votes go? Probably the same place they went in NC, VA, MI, and IN. The same spaceship that landed in those states, that didn’t return in 2010, landed in FL in 2008. So, in 2012, the vote for the GOP candidate in FL will be about 4 million. If Barry doesn’t get at least 450K of those spaceship riders to make it to the election in November 2012, he’ll lose the 29 EV from Florida.

The analysis of the voting patterns in the states that need to be turned by the GOP is starting to look trend like. These gigantic voter participation rates that appeared in these states in 2008, that disappeared in 2009 and 2010, should foretell some of the GOP strategy for 2012. Play the game without mistakes, don’t fumble, don’t throw interceptions and let the other team beat themselves which Barry is sure to do. (Can you say 1967 boundaries?) Because another trend that has blossomed since 2008. Every time Barry gives a speech now, his numbers go down. When he was running for office in 2008, every time he gave a speech his numbers went up. And the only thing he really knows how to do or likes to do, more than look in a mirror, is give speeches. The more speeches he gives in FL the worse off he is going to be. How many people now think that Barry can get 100’s of thousands of folks to a speech in Berlin or fill a football stadium for an acceptance speech? The guy is an empty suit.

In Florida, the GOP can probably count on 4 million votes for whoever is nominated, but without some huge difference in the unemployment rate, the housing bust and minority employment, I’m willing to bet the house that the spaceship isn’t going to take off for BHO.