April 20, WaPo poll says that 28% will definitely vote for Barry and 45% definitely won’t vote for Barry. This would indicate to me that the other 27% are “whatever”. Does this mean that 72% of the country isn’t listening to the daily MSM rant that no one can beat Barry? This is an extremely important poll because of the vote totals in the states that need to be flipped in 2012. At this point, and it’s early, Barry is a sure loser, if the right nominee for the GOP is chosen.
In 2010, 2.7 million people voted in NC and in 2008 an incredible 70% of registered voters, voted for a total of 4.4 million votes. 3.4 million people voted in 2004. A million more voters in only four years! If Barry can get the same number of people to vote in 2012, he could win NC, but the chances of that are pretty slim. The (R) vote in 2008 was a little higher than in 2004, but the vote for Barry was 600K higher than for Kerry in 2004. This is an astounding increase obviously an anomaly. Kind of like the number of people who waited in line to see “The Exorcist” compared to the number who waited in line to see “The Exorcist II”. Assuming that the vote comes in somewhere between 3.4 and 4.4 million in 2012 and Barry loses only 20K votes due to voter apathy and that he is no longer unique, the GOP will win this state. Barry won by only 15K in NC in 2008.
The vote totals and percentages are similar in VA,IN,FL and OH. The voter participation percentages were just off the map in 2008 and everything indicates including this poll that the EV map will look a lot more like 2004, in 2012, with an edge to the GOP because of redistricting. If the red states that voted for McCain stay the same and the GOP flips FL,VA,IN,NC,OH and NH , that’s enough to win 270.