North Carolina 2012

I can’t believe that I wrote this diary entry before Barry decided to have his convention here. So, here it is:

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Will Barry take NC in 2012? You have to go back to 1976 from 2008 to see a blue color on NC. NC went for every GOP nominee from 1980 until 2008. However, I think 2008 was an anomaly in politics in NC. Elizabeth Dole lost to Kay Hagen in 2008, many (D)’s elected to the House. However, the Presidential vote in NC was very close 2.14 million to 2.13 million with Barry taking the 15 electoral votes.

In 2010, however, the GOP did pretty well. Richard Burr, Senate candidate took 55% of the vote and Rene Elmers beat the (D) guy who beats up college students. Heath Schuler, Larry Kissel, and Mike McIntyre were re-elected, but, they will increasingly side with the GOP majority in the House especially on tax and spending issues and I can’t wait to see them on stage in NC with Barry.  NC is a real mixed bag, but looking at the results in 2008 with only 15K vote difference when Barry was a combination of Moses and the Messiah, I can’t see him taking this state in 2012.

The vote total in 2004 is probably more what we will see in 2012, with 56% (R) and 43% (D). The (D’s) did get a huge increase in voter participation from 2004 to 2008, going from 1.5 million to 2.1 million. I don’t see this being sustained in 2012 because much of that increase came from college age students and African Americans. Seeing that Barry has done less than nothing for either of these groups as far as employment, foreclosures and the concerns over the perpetual war, I don’t see these groups getting all that ginned up in 2012.

The unemployment rate in NC is 9.8 percent. The economy would have to perk up to over 6% GDP growth in 2011 and ditto in the first 7 months of 2012 for unemployment to fall below 8%, here. Not going to happen. The (I) vote is going to go pretty strong against Barry, if the business climate doesn’t improve drastically in NC which it won’t.

The Tea Party is going to start licking their chops over descending on Charlotte, NC. I think I might move there, too.

Barry et. el. has decided to write off Missouri by dissing them on the convention. Illinois doesn’t matter because a non-human with a (D) next to his name would get Ill. electoral votes.