The Obama Depression

Oy vey. Gets old doesn’t it? Watching your 401K sink like a stone. Listening to the talking heads tell us that we haven’t seen anything yet. Predictions of unemployment at 7, 8, even 9, percent. George Bush’s fault, right? Fuhgeddaboutit.

Lest anyone forget, the stock market is a leading indicator. Markets are forward looking, anywhere from 6 months to 18 months, depending on who you listen to. That tells me that the markets are pricing in an Obama victory. Nobody is predicting a McCain victory, are they? I have a feeling that this has been going on since the Spring when it became apparent that McCain didn’t have much of a clue about where to take his campaign. Thanks, John.

It gets worse, though. Not only are US markets tanking but markets all over the world are headed south, as well. I think that they see what I see. What I see is that the election of Obama represents a continuing downward slide and the beginning of the end of American exceptionalism. Obama has already destroyed trillions of dollars of net worth and he hasn’t even taken office yet. Who will lead the world out of this recession? Europe? Sure. Japan? Doubt it. China? One thing people forget about China. They don’t really have alot of money. America? Frankly, I don’t see it. While we remain, by far, the richest company in the world, we have $10T in debt, soaring deficits, and we are talking about “stimulus” of extending unemployment benefits, makes me ill.

I heard an interesting fact recently. The stock market during the 30’s actually bottomed in 1934 after crashing in 1929. That means we had another 5 years of absolute malaise even after the markets bottomed. It doesn’t matter how grandly Obama fails. It will all be blamed on Bush. But make no mistake. Whatever is happening in the stock market is anticipating the outcome of the election and has been for some time.