Diary

Trump and his supporters run from the poll lessons of 2012

Don’t believe the rigged, lyin’ polls, Trump is winning!

That was the message Eric Bolling had for his viewers on The Five yesterday.

And it is a common refrain for Trump supporters both in the media and on the internet. It is hard to blame them. After all, who really wants to admit that they are going to lose?

But while Trump and his supporters choose to conveniently ignore polling data, we all know that closing our eyes doesn’t make things go away.

According to the RCP polling average, Hillary Clinton is leading by 5.8 points nationally. That margin and the trend is too big to ignore. But Trump and Co. would have us believe that the polling is biased in favor of the Democrats, if not outright fabricated. (They sometimes like to point out that some surveys include more Democrats than Republicans. But the polls should be if they are reflecting actual party registration.)

Let’s test that hypothesis: are the polls rigged for the Dems?

In 2012, the RCP polling average had Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney by 0.7 points. In the general election, Obama actually beat Romney by 3.9 points.

pollaverage

So not only were the polls NOT biased in favor of Obama, they actually underestimated his margin of victory!

Look, we all know polls are not perfect. They are not supposed to be. But they are conducted in a scientific manner.

What Trump supporters like to cite: online polls, are not scientific. They are not representative of reality. Neither are crowd sizes. Just ask Presidents Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders how well those things predicted their future victories.

Ignore the real polls at your own peril. Some people are going to be mighty disappointed on election night.