Marco Rubio cannot win the Republican nomination outright. He has practically acknowledged that he cannot win a state until Florida.
Take a brief look at the remaining primary calendar and you will see why this is troublesome:
MARCH 1, 2016:
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
MARCH 5, 2016:
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine
MARCH 6, 2016:
MARCH 8, 2016:
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi
MARCH 10, 2016:
U.S. Virgin Islands
MARCH 12, 2016:
Guam, District of Columbia
MARCH 15, 2016:
FLORIDA, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Mariana Islands
Even if Marco Rubio was able to win Florida, the timing of the primary is simply too far removed from Super Tuesday to make a difference. Since the Nevada caucuses, when Florida rolls around 25 more states/territories will have voted and 6 more election dates will have taken place. From a momentum perspective, that is devastating. Keep in mind, Rubio has not won a state at all.
Even if it wasn’t too late for a win in Florida to do him any good, Marco Rubio doesn’t even seem to be the frontrunner there. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Trump ahead of Rubio by 20 points. That is a lot of ground to make up. And yet, Team Rubio is saying “We are going to win Florida. Period. Take it to the bank.”
While he has been outwardly confident about his Florida prospects, Rubio is planning for a brokered convention behind the scenes. But if Rubio can’t win states, and his presence prevents Ted Cruz from winning very many, there will be no brokered convention.
Marco Rubio is young. He isn’t running for re-election to the Senate, and in 2018 there will be an open governor’s seat in his home state. He should see the writing on the wall, drop out of the presidential race to clear the field for Cruz (he doesn’t even have to make an endorsement) and he likely will have saved the GOP from Trump. He can become the next governor of Florida and run for president in the future. Or maybe Cruz would offer him the VP spot. Either way, Rubio should not let his own ambitions get in the way of the country’s well-being. He has the opportunity to live out his dreams in the future, but 2016 is not his time.