2012 Electoral Predictions

As we come to the close of the campaign for the United States Presidency(or, as I like to call it, “Protectorate of the Electorate”), one thing has remained constant: Neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama has been able to break out of the currently tied nature of the Presidential contest and vault into a clear lead. With that said, many things have caught my eye which lead me to believe there will be a landslide win on Tuesday(I think we should have a call by 10:30 PM). Those things are as follows:

1. Independents: Mitt Romney has held a lead from anywhere between 8 and 13 points nationally amongst the pivotal Independent vote. In the states, the margin is generally much larger, with Romney, in some instances, leading by as much as 26 points(in the swing state of Virginia). Followers of elections must remember that, in 2004, John Kerry won Indies by 1-3 points nationally, but still fell a hair short of winning over then-President Bush. To win this voting bloc by double digits is indicative of a groundswell of support for Romney which will propel him to a landslide victory. With that in mind, it is worth noting that the winning of the Independent vote can usually be attributable to the enthusiasm which one party or the other holds for their nominated candidate.

2. Party enthusiasm: Right now, Republicans are more enthusiastic about their chances than are Democrats. Republican enthusiasm is two-fold. They are not only enthused about beating Obama, but they have also grown to like Romney as both a person and a policy maker. Democrats, however, are depressed and un-enthused for a few reasons, not the least of which is a stagnant economy and the handling of the fiasco in Libya. A prime example of these factors in action is the slipping of Obama’s leads in predominantly Democratic states such as Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington.

3. Late Breakers: Those who are undecided at this stage of the election will usually do one of two things. They will either vote for the challenger(Romney) or stay at home on Election Day. If the state(such as, say, Ohio) is close enough in the polls, the undecideds will likely determine how the state goes. Undecideds will have likely perceive themselves as having too much at stake to sit this one out, so I see this small chunk breaking for Romney by a 5-1 margin.

So, without further ado, here are my predictions and musings with regards as to how this election will go down.


AL(9 EV’s): Mitt Romney 63.7%-36.3% over Barack Obama.
AK(3 EV’s): Mitt Romney 59.5%-39.8% over Barack Obama.
AZ(11 EV’s): Mitt Romney 56.5%-43.5% over Barack Obama.
AR(6 EV’s): Mitt Romney 62.0%-38.0% over Barack Obama.
CA(55 EV’s): Barack Obama 53.8%-45.8% over Mitt Romney.
CO(9 EV’s): Mitt Romney 51.7%-47.9% over Barack Obama.
CT(7 EV’s): Barack Obama 49.7%-48.9% over Mitt Romney.
DE(3 EV’s): Barack Obama 58.6%-41.0% over Mitt Romney.
DC(3 EV’s): Barack Obama 71.4%-28.5% over Mitt Romney.
FL(29 EV’s): Mitt Romney 52.3%-46.5% over Barack Obama.
GA(16 EV’s): Mitt Romney 58.1%-41.2% over Barack Obama.
HI(4 EV’s): Barack Obama 66.2%-33.6% over Mitt Romney.
ID(4 EV’s): Mitt Romney 74.0%-25.4% over Barack Obama.
IL(20 EV’s): Barack Obama 57.5%-41.7% over Mitt Romney
IN(11 EV’s): Mitt Romney 56.0%-42.9% over Barack Obama.
IA(6 EV’s): Mitt Romney 50.6%-48.8% over Barack Obama.
KS(6 EV’s): Mitt Romney 58.7%-39.9% over Barack Obama.
KY(8 EV’s): Mitt Romney 57.5%-42.5% over Barack Obama.
LA(8 EV’s): Mitt Romney 61.5%-37.9% over Barack Obama.
ME(4 EV’s): Mitt Romney 50.9%-48.5% over Barack Obama.
MD(10 EV’s): Barack Obama 58.1%-41.9% over Mitt Romney.
MA(11 EV’s): Barack Obama 58.4%-41.4% over Mitt Romney.
MI(16 EV’s): Mitt Romney 50.5%-49.5% over Barack Obama.
MN(10 EV’s): Mitt Romney 49.5%-48.5% over Barack Obama.
MS(6 EV’s): Mitt Romney 64.5%-35.5% over Barack Obama.
MO(10 EV’s): Mitt Romney 55.7%-44.3% over Barack Obama.
MT(3 EV’s): Mitt Romney 55.5%-43.2% over Barack Obama.
NE(5 EV’s): Mitt Romney 58.5%-41.0% over Barack Obama.
NV(6 EV’s): Mitt Romney 50.7%-49.0% over Barack Obama.
NH(4 EV’s): Mitt Romney 51.7%-47.7% over Barack Obama.
NJ(14 EV’s): Barack Obama 53.5%-46.5% over Mitt Romney.
NM(5 EV’s): Barack Obama 56.3%-43.3% over Mitt Romney.
NY(29 EV’s): Barack Obama 61.0%-37.5% over Mitt Romney.
NC(15 EV’s): Mitt Romney 54.5%-45.3% over Barack Obama.
ND(3 EV’s): Mitt Romney 58.0%-42.0% over Barack Obama.
OH(18 EV’s): Mitt Romney 51.1%-48.7% over Barack Obama.
OK(7 EV’s): Mitt Romney 71.5%-28.5% over Barack Obama.
OR(7 EV’s): Mitt Romney 49.8%-49.4% over Barack Obama.
PA(20 EV’s): Mitt Romney 51.5%-48.5% over Barack Obama.
RI(4 EV’s): Barack Obama 58.0%-41.5% over Mitt Romney.
SC(9 EV’s): Mitt Romney 56.5%-43.5% over Barack Obama.
SD(3 EV’s): Mitt Romney 57.9%-40.9% over Barack Obama.
TN(11 EV’s): Mitt Romney 63.2%-36.3% over Barack Obama.
TX(38 EV’s): Mitt Romney 59.5%-40.1% over Barack Obama.
UT(6 EV’s): Mitt Romney 66.5%-33.5% over Barack Obama.
VT(3 EV’s): Barack Obama 60.7%-39.3% over Mitt Romney.
VA(13 EV’s): Mitt Romney 51.3%-48.7% over Barack Obama.
WA(12 EV’s): Mitt Romney 50.1%-49.2% over Barack Obama.
WV(5 EV’s): Mitt Romney 62.5%-37.4% over Barack Obama.
WI(10 EV’s): Mitt Romney 51.0%-48.5% over Barack Obama.
WY(3 EV’s): Mitt Romney 70.0%-30.0% over Barack Obama.


AZ-SEN: Jeff Flake(R) 54.5%-45.5% over Richard Carmona(D). GOP HOLD.
CA-SEN: Dianne Feinstein(D) 63%-37% over Elizabeth Emken(R). DEM HOLD.
CT-SEN: Chris Murphy(D) 52.5%-47.5% over Linda McMahon(R). DEM GAIN.
DE-SEN: Tom Carper(D) 62.2%-37.8% over Kevin Wade(R). DEM HOLD.
FL-SEN: Connie Mack(R) 50.8%-49.2% over Bill Nelson(D). GOP GAIN.
HI-SEN: Mazie Hirono(D) 56.3%-43.7% over Linda Lingle(R). DEM HOLD.
IN-SEN: Richard Mourdock(R) 51.3%-48.7% over Joe Donnelly(D). GOP HOLD.
ME-SEN: Charlie Summers(R) 47.5%-45.5%-7% over Angus King(I) and Cynthia Dill(D). GOP HOLD.
MD-SEN: Ben Cardin(D) 59%-26.9%-14.1% over Daniel Bongino(R) and Rob Sobhani(I). DEM HOLD.
MA-SEN: Scott Brown(R) 52.1%-47.9% over Elizabeth Warren(D). GOP HOLD.
MI-SEN: Debbie Stabenow(D) 53.6%-46.4% over Peter Hoekstra(R). DEM HOLD.
MN-SEN: Amy Klobuchar(D) 68.5%-31.5% over Kurt Bills(R). DEM HOLD.
MS-SEN: Roger Wicker(R) 67.8%-32.2% over Albert N. Gore Jr(D). GOP HOLD.
MO-SEN: Todd Akin(R) 53.3%-46.7% over Claire McCaskill(D). GOP GAIN.
MT-SEN: Denny Rehberg(R) 51.2%-48.8% over Jon Tester(D). GOP GAIN.
NE-SEN: Deb Fischer(R) 57.1%-42.9% over Bob Kerrey(D). GOP GAIN.
NV-SEN: Dean Heller(R) 52.9%-47.1% over Shelley Berkley(D). GOP HOLD.
NJ-SEN: Bob Menendez(D) 55.3%-44.7% over Joe Kyrillos(R). DEM HOLD.
NM-SEN: Martin Heinrich(D) 55%-45% over Heather Wilson(R). DEM HOLD.
NY-SEN: Kirsten Gillibrand(D) 68.4%-31.6% over Wendy Long(R). DEM HOLD.
ND-SEN: Rick Berg(R) 51.5%-48.5% over Heidi Heitkamp(D). GOP GAIN.
OH-SEN: Josh Mandel(R) 50.3%-49.7% over Sherrod Brown(D). GOP GAIN.
PA-SEN: Tom Smith(R) 51.3%-48.7% over Bob Casey Jr(D). GOP GAIN.
RI-SEN: Sheldon Whitehouse(D) 68.5%-31.5% over Barry Hinckley(R). DEM HOLD.
TN-SEN: Bob Corker(R) 73%-27% over Mark Clayton(D). GOP HOLD.
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz(R) 63.3%-36.7% over Paul Sadler(D). GOP HOLD.
UT-SEN: Orrin Hatch(R) 74%-26% over Scott Howell(D). GOP HOLD.
VT-SEN: Bernie Sanders(I/D) 67.7%-32.3% over John MacGovern(R). INDY/DEM HOLD.
VA-SEN: George Allen(R) 51%-49% over Tim Kaine(D). GOP GAIN.
WA-SEN: Maria Cantwell(D) 57.5%-42.5% Michael Baumgartner(R). DEM HOLD.
WV-SEN: Joe Manchin(D) 65.2%-29.8%-5% over John Raese(R) and Bob Baber(Mountain). DEM HOLD.
WI-SEN: Tommy Thompson(R) 50.7%-49.3% over Tammy Baldwin(D). GOP GAIN.
WY-SEN: John Barrasso(R) 71%-29% over Tim Chesnut(D). GOP HOLD.


GOP{+58(With the addition of 9 newly-drawn seats)}: AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-9, AR-4, CA-3, CA-9, CA-21, CA-24, CA-41, CA-46, CA-47, CA-51, CO-7, CT-4, CT-5, DE-AL, FL-6, FL-22, GA-2, GA-9, GA-12, IL-12, IL-13, IN-2, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, KY-6, ME-1, ME-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-9, MI-5, MN-1, MO-5, NV-4, NJ-6, NM-1, NY-1, NY-4, NY-17, NY-25, NY-27, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13, OH-16, OK-2, OR-4, OR-5, PA-12, PA-13, PA-17, RI-1, SC-7, TX-15, TX-25, TX-35, TX-36, UT-2, UT-4, WA-1, WA-6, WV-3
Democrats(Sole “gains” are in newly-drawn districts): CA-29, FL-9, OH-3, TX-33, TX-34


DE-GOV: Jack Markell(D) 62%-38% over Jeff Cragg(R). DEM HOLD.
IN-GOV: Mike Pence(R) 56%-44% over John Gregg(D). GOP HOLD.
MO-GOV: Jay Nixon(D) 57%-43% over Dave Spence(R). DEM HOLD.
MT-GOV: Rick Hill(R) 53.5%-46.5% over Steve Bullock(D). GOP GAIN.
NH-GOV: Ovide LaMontagne(R) 51.1%-48.9% over Maggie Hassan(D). GOP GAIN.
NC-GOV: Pat McCrory(R) 62.5%-37.5% over Walter Dalton(D). GOP GAIN.
ND-GOV: Jack Dalrymple(R) 59%-41% over Ryan Taylor(D). GOP HOLD.
UT-GOV: Gary Herbert(R) 66.7%-33.3% over Peter Cooke(D). GOP HOLD.
VT-GOV: Peter Schumlin(D) 64.1%-35.9% over Randy Brock(R). DEM HOLD.
WA-GOV: Rob McKenna(R) 51.7%-48.3% over Jay Inslee(D). GOP GAIN.
WV-GOV: Earl Tomblin(D) 59.5%-40.5% over Bill Maloney(R). DEM HOLD.



Mitt Romney: 370 EV’s
Barack Obama: 168 EV’s

Senate: GOP 56-44, with Independent Senator Bernie Sanders(I-VT) caucusing with the Democrats.

House: GOP 300-135.

Governorships: GOP 34-16


Mitt Romney did what no other GOP candidate(bar maybe Santorum) could do: He drew the contrast between himself and Obama, put forth a plan, and gave the average American hope for the future in the wake of his imminent victory.

So, in conclusion, Democrats dug themselves into this hole by re-nominating a badly flawed President. His handling of the economy and foreign policy(which led to the Libya fiasco) are mere manifestations of his flaws. Had Democrats taken my advice(here and here), they would not be on the precipice of a historic loss such as this. Mitt Romney will, in fact, beat Obama like a weapon of mass percussion. Democrats=Too dumb for words.

Hope you appreciated my musings on how the election will go down.