The Argument: Why Prospects of a Brokered Democratic Convention are High, Part 2

Last Tuesday, President Obama scored an underwhelming victory in the primaries in the state of Oklahoma. Obama won 57%(64,257 votes), versus Randall Terry’s 18%(20,291 votes), Jim Rogers’ 14%(15,536 votes), Darcy Richardson’s 6%(7,193 votes), and Bob Ely’s 5%(5,320 votes). The fact that he lost 12 counties(including the ENTIRE panhandle of Oklahoma) to a heap of no-names should, and probably does, have the White House and the DNC pissing potatoes, as their beloved leader has shown time and again that he is fallible against even the slightest of challenges(his scant, no-name opposition routinely gets, on average, 10% in primaries where they are on the ballot). Another matter of pivotal importance is the unemployment rate. According to numbers released Friday morning, the unemployment rate has remained in a relative holding pattern at 8.3%. Only 227,000 jobs were added to the economy during the space in time in which these numbers were taken. Propaganda organizations like Current TV(who’s about as no-name as Obama’s opposition, I might add), Daily Kos, MSNBC, among many dozens of others, have spun this as a plus. After all, we did create 227K jobs, didn’t we? Yes, point taken. 227K is better than the zero that the Obama economy fostered into existence in August, 2011. But exactly how does a mere 227K jobs affect the unemployment rate? That’s right, not in the very least. Oh, and you know what else is in a relative holding pattern? The Presidents’ job approval rating. His approval’s have remained steady at 49% approval, versus 47% disapproval(some polling outfits have the disapproval rating higher). This has to be disconcerting for the Obama Administration, who are sporting the deaths of Bin Laden and Quaddhaffi and an economic recovery as they go into the November elections. These next paragraphs will present the clear, cohesive argument for why a brokered Democratic convention, which I touched on last time, is the route of most sensibility.


Given said economic numbers and recent Primary blunders, the re-nomination of Obama/Biden could prove apocalyptic for the Democratic Party as a wholesome whole. Obama under-performing in OK diminishes his chances of winning the midwest, which contains 62 electoral votes{one of which(Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District) he won last time around}. Obama/Biden’s Progressive/Regressive ideals have sealed his fate in the South, which contains 135 electoral votes{57 of which(FL, NC, and VA) he won in 2008}. Add that up with Bush/McCain states, and you get 227 electoral votes in the GOP’s column. Gore/Kerry/Obama states without a chance of a GOP victory account for 167 electoral votes. That leaves 144 electoral votes in the undecided column(CO, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI). We can safely take IN, IA, and MO off the table for Obama, bringing undecideds down to 117 electoral votes and the GOP nominee up to 254 electoral votes. MN and OR will probably go to Obama regardless, bringing undecideds down to 100 electoral votes and Obama up to 184 electoral votes. All the other states hinge on the economy(though NM could probably go for the candidate most likely to allot fundage for research into UFO’s). Given current market indicators, the economy won’t improve by much, if at all. If these indicators are correct, Obama is travellin’ down the lonesome rode toward a horrific, landslide defeat in November, which, in and of itself, is a strong argument for a brokered Democratic convention.


So let’s say Democrats have the brass balls to take it to the convention. The ticket they choose will have to be a unity ticket, as the grassroots will be agitated at what they perceive as the Washington Democratic establishment paying off delegates in the choosing of their nominee. Who will they choose? I don’t know, but I have some ideas.

Barney Frank/Al Sharpton
Wesley Clark/Russ Feingold
Tom Vilsak/Roy Barnes
Bill Richardson/John Hickenlooper
Janet Napolitano/Al Franken
Brian Schweitzer/Jay Nixon
Jerry Brown/John Lynch
Tim Kaine/Sheldon Whitehouse
Steve Beshear/Deval Patrick

All of these tickets would unarguably, undoubtedly, and unquestionably fare better than Obama/Biden, and the Democrats know this. That is why chatter regarding a brokered Democratic convention has been on the uptick since my last post hit the blogosphere sprinting. The next big, pressing question is this: How would they fare against Santorum?


So the Democrats have picked a unity ticket in their brokered convention. For this article, we’ll say the choice was Clark/Feingold. It’s time to campaign for the General Election, slated to be held on November 6, 2012. Clark/Feingold is holding onto Obama’s 184 electoral votes. With Obama gone, we can add IA and MO to the undecided column, and NM, OR, and WA to the Democratic column, bringing the undecideds down to 99 electoral votes, Republicans down to 238 electoral votes, and Democrats up to 201 electoral votes. With the economy improving over the thought of no more Obama, we can also move CO, MI, NH, and WI into the Democratic column, bringing undecideds down to 60 electoral votes and Democrats up to 240 electoral votes. Santorum’s social conservatism and grassroots appeal would give him back IA and MO and win him NV, bringing undecideds down to 38 electoral votes(OH and PA) and Republicans up to 260 electoral votes. Grassroots appeal and favorite son status would give Santorum the United States Presidency by a 298-240(50.5-48.2) margin. A brokered convention for Democrats may not help them in 2012, but it would build/construct them a road to victory in 2016 or 2020.

In conclusion, Democrats are in desperate shape if they keep Obama/Biden as their standard bearers. In fact, a Rasmussen Reports poll has Mitt Romney leading Obama by his largest margin yet(48-43) and Rick Santorum leading Obama by one point(45-44, I believe). A brokered Democratic convention is not a natter of expediency anymore. Rather, it is a matter of pure necessity if they are to stand a fighting chance against Santorum and the average, everyday Americans who will high-power his campaign into over-drive. Should they stand with Obama/Biden, they will be flirtin’ with disaster every night and day. This much I do know: It’s over for Obama, and it will be for the Democrats if they fail to utilize a brokered convention for the purpose of dumping him and saving themselves from themselves.