Here are my predictions for the upcoming Primaries on May 18:
KY-SEN GOP Primary:
Paul 53%
Grayson 44%
Stephenson 2%
Martin and Scribner poll either at or below 1%.
KY-SEN DEM Primary:
Mongiardo 51%
Conway 45%
Price 3%
Buckmaster and Farmer poll either at or under 1%.
Paul beats Mongiardo 51-49 in the General.
KY-03 GOP Primary:
Lally 50%
Reetz 41%
Hausman 4%
Durbin 3%
Wicker 2%
Lally loses to Incumbent Democrat Yarmuth 53-47 in the General.
KY-05 DEM Primary:
Prince 59%
Holbert 35%
Stepp 6%
Prince loses to Incumbent Republican Rogers 69-31 in the General.
KY-06 GOP Primary:
Barr 48%
Kemper III 39%
Lockett 8%
Barnes 4%
Pendergrass 1%
Barr loses to Incumbent Democrat Chandler 55-45 in the General.
AR-SEN DEM Primary:
Halter 47%
Lincoln 44%
Morrison 9%
AR-SEN GOP Primary:
Boozman 47%
Baker 24%
Holt 19%
Hendren 7%
Coleman 2%
Alexander, Ramey, and Reynolds will poll either at or below 1%.
I see Boozman beating Halter 55-45 in the General.
AR-LT GOV GOP Primary:
Darr 68%
Copeland 32%
I see Democratic challenger Broadway beating Darr 58-42 in the General.
AR-SoS DEM Primary:
Wilcox 55%
O’Brien 31%
Tate 14%
I see Wilcox beating Republican challenger Martin 59-41 in the General.
AR-State Land Commissioner DEM Primary:
Davenport 76%
Bryant 13%
Berg 11%
I see Davenport beating Republican challenger Thurston 64-36 in the General.
AR-01 DEM Primary:
Bryles 30%
Causey 29%
Cook 28%
Wooldridge 7%
Ponder 5%
Green 1%
AR-01 GOP Primary:
Smith 58%
Crawford 42%
AR-01 DEM Runoff:
Bryles 54%
Causey 46%
I see Bryles defeating Smith 54-46 in the General.
AR-02 DEM Primary:
Wills 48%
Elliott 43%
Boling 7%
Kennedy 1%
Adams 1%
AR-02 GOP Primary:
Griffin 60%
Wallace 40%
AR-02 DEM Runoff:
Elliott 51%
Wills 49%
I see Griffin beating Elliott 52-48 in the General.
AR-03 GOP Primary:
Womack 44%
Bledsoe 29%
DeLay 16%
Maddox 7%
Matayo 2%
Skoch 1%
Lowry 1%
AR-03 GOP Runoff:
Womack 62%
Bledsoe 38%
I see Womack beating Democratic challenger David Whitaker 57-43 in the General.
AR-04 GOP Primary:
Gallas 65%
Rankin 35%
I see Incumbent Democrat Ross beating Gallas 56-41 in the General.
PA-GOV DEM Primary:
Onorato 46%
Hoeffel 27%
Wagner 21%
Williams 6%
PA-GOV GOP Primary:
Corbett 78%
Rohrer 22%
I see Corbett beating Onorato 57-43 in the General.
PA-LT GOV GOP Primary:
Beilert 23%
Metcalfe 21%
Cawley 18%
Kennedy 13%
Urban 9%
Pepper 7%
McCue 5%
Diamond 4%
PA-LT GOV DEM Primary:
Saidel 47%
Conklin 42%
Smith-Ribner 11%
I see the General Election as a TOSSUP.
PA-SEN DEM Primary:
Sestak 53%
Specter 46%
Vodvarka 1%
PA-SEN GOP Primary:
Toomey 83%
Lusisk 17%
I see the General Election as a TOSSUP.
PA-03 DEM Primary:
Dahlkemper 92%
Marin 8%
PA-03 GOP Primary:
Kelly 51%
Fisher 32%
Grabb 13%
Huber 2%
Moore 1%
Franz 1%
I see Kelly beating Incumbent Democrat Dahlkemper 51-48 in the General.
PA-04 GOP Primary:
Buchanan 59%
Rothfus 41%
I see Buchanan beating Incumbent Democrat Altmire 50-49 in the General.
PA-06 DEM Primary:
Pike 47%
Trivedi 30%
Sellers 23%
I see Incumbent Republican Gerlach beating Pike 51-49 in the General.
PA-07 DEM Primary:
Lentz 68%
Touey 26%
Conner 6%
I see Meehan beating Lentz 49-48 in the General.
PA-08 GOP Primary:
Fitzpatrick 53%
Jones 34%
Hoffman 8%
Carlineo 5%
I see Fitzpatrick beating Incumbent Democrat Murphy 52-48 in the General.
PA-10 GOP Primary:
Marino 47%
Derk 47%
Madeira 6%
After weeks of recounts, Marino wins by 1 vote.
I see Marino beating Incumbent Democrat Carney 50.1-49.6 in the General.
PA-12 DEM Primary:
O’Brien 46%
Kanjorski 45%
Kelly 9%
PA-11 GOP Primary:
Barletta 77%
Paige 23%
I see Barletta beating O’Brien 53-47 in the General.
PA-12 Special Election:
Burns(R) 52 %
Critz(D) 48 %
PA-12 DEM Primary:
Critz 54%
Bucchianeri 44%
Mackell 2%
PA-12 GOP Primary:
Burns 56%
Russell 44%
I see Burns winning a full term over Critz 54-44 in the General.
PA-13 GOP Primary:
Adcock 48%
Quinter 43%
Haughton 9%
I see Incumbent Democrat Schwartz beating Adcock 63-37 in the General.
PA-15 GOP Primary:
Dent 85%
Benol 15%
I see Dent beating Democratic challenger Callahan 55-43 in the General.
PA-17 DEM Primary:
Holden 56%
Dow Ford 44%
PA-17 GOP Primary:
Argall 55%
Griffith 33%
First 10%
Ryan 2%
I see Argall beating Incumbent Democrat Holden 50.5-49.5 in the General.
PA-19 GOP Primary:
Plaats 64%
Smeltzer 36%
I see Incumbent Republican Plaats beating Democratic challenger Sanders 67-33 in the General.
OR-GOV DEM Primary:
Kitzhaber 59%
Bradbury 36%
Wilson 4%
Obrist 1%
OR-GOV GOP Primary:
Dudley 35%
Alley 29%
Lim 16%
Sizemore 13%
Watkins 4%
Colvin 2%
Karr 1%
Cutright and Forthan will finish either at or below 1%.
I see Kitzhaber beating Dudley 55-44.
OR-State Treasurer DEM Primary:
Wheeler 57%
Metsger 43%
I see Incumbent Democrat Wheeler beating Republican challenger Telfer 58-42 in the General.
OR-SEN DEM Primary:
Wyden 92%
Hooker 5%
Goberman 3%
OR-SEN GOP Primary:
Huffman 30%
Stutzman 24%
Parker 19%
Waldron 14%
Later 9%
Woodland 3%
Dinkel 1%
I see Incumbent Democrat Wyden beating Huffman 60-37.
OR-01 DEM Primary:
Wu 79%
Robinson 21%
OR-01 GOP Primary:
Kuzmanich 41%
Cornilles 38%
Brodhead 12%
Keller 9%
I see Incumbent Democrat Wu beating Kuzmanich 56-39.
OR-03 DEM Primary:
Blumenauer 84%
Sweeney 16%
I see Incumbent Democrat Blumenauer beating Republican challenger Lopez 71-24.
OR-04 GOP Primary:
Robinson 63%
Germond 37%
OR-05 GOP Primary:
Bruun 77%
Thompson 23%
I see Bruun beating Incumbent Democrat Schrader 51-49
Your thoughts.
