May 4 Senate Primary Predictions

Tonight, there’s going to be Senate Primaries in NC, OH, and IN. Here’s my predictions for the races:

IN-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Evan Bayh is retiring. Congressman Brad Ellsworth is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Bank Branch Manager Don Bates Jr., Plumbing Contractor Richard Behney, former US Senator Dan Coats, former Congressman John Hostettler, and State Senator Marlin Stutzman are in the hunt for the GOP nomination. I see Hostettler winning 39-36-23-1-1 over Coats, Stutzman, Behney, and Bates Jr.

NC-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr is running for re-election. Senator Burr, Asheboro City Councilman Eddie Burks, Electronics Store Owner Brad Jones, and former State Representative Larry Linney are in the hunt for the GOP nomination. Former State Senator Cal Cunningham, Accountant Susan Harris, Attorneys Kenneth Lewis and Marcus Williams, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and Minister W. Ann Worthy are in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. I see Burr dominating Linney, Burks, and Jones 90-7-2-1. I see Marshall avoiding a runoff over Cunningham, Lewis, Williams, Harris, and Worthy 50-34-11-4 with Harris and Worthy polling at or below 1%.

OH-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator George Voinovich is retiring. Former Bush OMB Director Rob Portman is unopposed for the GOP nomination. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher are in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. I see Fisher crushing Brunner 67-33.