My 2009 Gubernatorial Race Ratings

We have just about moved into the fall of 2009 and with that, Election day 2009 is coming closer and closer. So far, Republicans have a reason to be optimistic about making two Gubernatorial pickups in states that Obama won. Here are my race ratings:


This race was over once NJ Democrats couldn’t get any strong primary challengers to take out embattled incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D) in the Democratic primary earlier this year. Corzine is in the same position here that former KY Governor Ernie Fletcher was in in 2007. Corzine is deeply unpopular, and NJ is facing the reality of a bad economy. Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) has a good chance of getting somewhere around 27-35 percent of the African American vote, and maybe even 43 percent of Latinos, therefore cutting into the NJ Democratic base of minority voters. It will be an uphill fight. I say Christie wins 59-41.

September Rating-Likely Republican


Deeds is in the same position here that McCain was in in October of last year. Deeds is running against a bad economy and anger against his party. It will be an uphill fight. National Democrats and the White House are definitely concerned. Former Virginia Governor and Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder recently talked about how he was approached by a White House official to come out publicly in favor of the Democrat Deeds. According to Wilder, the White House said it would be devastating if the party lost the Governorships of both New Jersey and Virginia. Wilder has indicated that he is none too pleased with the standard bearer of his party and has even had some kind words to say about McDonnell. A meeting between McDonnell and Wilder is said to be in the works, and if the former Democrat Governor were to actually endorse him, it would probably seal Deeds’s fate. Recently, Republicans received a huge boost when McDonnell was endorsed by Sheila Johnson, who, along with her ex-husband, founded Black Entertainment Television, and who claims to be the nation’s first ever black female billionaire. Johnson has typically supported Democrats, so many people like myself feel that this endorsement will be significant in helping McDonnell make inroads in Northern Virginia and among African-Americans. I say McDonnell wins 55-45.

September rating-Likely Republican

Your thoughts.