Diary

2010 Versus 2008 Exit Polls for House of Representatives

I noticed no one’s produced a direct comparison of the 2010 and 2008 CNN Exit polls, to see where the swing was the largest/smallest, so I decided to create one.  I used the House totals, and only picked out categories with direct comparisons.  The totals may not represent equal shifts due to voters not responding to certain questions and by changes in the compositions of the categories.  Note that these are exit polls, so they may not reflect the actual electorate, but should be fairly close.  Republican totals are Positive:

Category Response Gap 2008 Gap 2010 Difference
Vote by Sex
Male -6 14 20
Female -14 1 15
Vote By Race
White 8 23 15
Black -88 -80 8
Latino -41 -22 19
Asian -32 -18 14
Other -45 -9 36
Vote by Race
White Male 11 28 17
White Female 6 19 13
Black Male -84 -73 11
Black Female -90 -86 4
Latino Male -41 -11 30
Latino Female -38 -32 6
Other -40 -13 27
Vote by Age
18-29 -29 -13 16
30-44 -9 4 13
45-64 -5 8 13
65 and older -1 21 22
Vote by Income
Less than 50,000 -26 -11 15
50,000-100,000 -3 9 12
100,000 and up 2 18 16
Vote by Income and race
White<50,000 -1 12 13
Whites >50,000 12 24 12
Non-whites <50,000 -74 -61 13
Non-whites >50,000 -53 -40 13
Vote by Education
No High school -37 -21 16
H.S Graduate -12 6 18
Some College -8 10 18
College Graduate -2 18 20
Post Graduate -14 -12 2
College Graduate?
Yes -7 8 15
No -17 7 24
Vote by Education and Race
White College 6 19 13
Whites-No College 10 30 20
Non-White College -56 -42 14
Non-Whites-No College -68 -52 16
Vote by Party Id
Democrat -85 -84 1
Republican 80 89 9
Independent -8 19 27
Vote by Ideology
Liberal -76 -82 -6
Moderate -24 -13 11
Conservative 52 71 19
Vote by Religion
Protestant 8 21 13
Catholic -13 10 23
Jewish -62 NA NA
Other -55 -50 5
None -47 -38 9
Religion among Whites
White Protestant 28 41 13
White Catholic 6 20 14
White Jewish -66 NA NA
White other -37 -43 -6
White No Religion -38 -25 13
Non-White -66 -51 15
White Evangelical
Yes 42 58 16
No -27 -13 14
Attend Church Weekly?
Yes 8 18 10
No -22 -9 13
Children under 18
Yes -9 4 13
No -11 4 15
Union Member?
Yes -30 -24 6
No -3 11 14
Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual
Yes -61 -40 21
No -9 6 15
Vote for President in 2008
Obama -82 -70 12
McCain 74 84 10
Other NA 24 NA
Vote by Size of Place
Urban -29 -15 14
Suburban -3 13 16
Rural 0 24 24
Opinion of Government
Should do more -53 -56 -3
Should do less 38 56 18
Vote by Region
North East -23 -10 13
Midwest -8 9 17
South 2 24 22
West -19 -1 18