Gallup trends suggest Obama is losing non-black Minority support

While Checking through Gallup’s latest Weekly polling summary, i came across something rather interesting in their demographic breakdowns.  They polled that Obama’s approval rating over the week averaged 46%, with 93% support among Blacks, 39% support among whites, and 63% support among non-whites.


Now, assuming that Gallup’s polling sample is about 13% Black (national average), then that means Obama’s support among the 87% of the population that’s not black has to be roughly 39% in order for the total approval to be 46%.  Which means that Obama’s approval among non-black minorities is identical to his approval among whites.

Also, if you take Obama’s 63% approval from non-whites as a whole, and assume that Blacks comprise about 2/5ths of the non-whites in the sample, that means the non-black minorities have only a 43% approval for Obama.

This is quite a large swing, considering less than a year ago Gallup had him polling 78% approval among Hispanics and 81% approval among non-Whites in general.  This represents an 18-point drop-off in non-white support and probably a much larger one among Hispanics and Asians, as his approval among Blacks has only dropped 2 points.

Now, there are a couple of explanations for this: Gallup might have under-sampled blacks this week, they might have over-sampled Conservative Hispanics or Asians (you usually get small sample sizes for those groups unless you’re targeting them, leading to high margins of error), or Liberal Hispanics might be voicing their disapproval of his inaction on Arizona’s immigration law.  However, the most likely explanation is that non-black minorities (and Hispanics in particular) are turning away from Obama, a notion that Gallup notes is likely and says they’ll investigate further.

But whatever the reason, polling that low among two ethnic groups that are usually solid democrats should be unsettling for Obama, especially with the Midterms only 5 months away.