Diary

2010 Redistricting--Georgia

Here is the Georgia map:
Southern Georgia:
Southern Georgia

Northern Georgia:
Northern Georgia

Here are some close-ups
Savannah Area:
Savannah Area

Macon Area:
Macon Area

Atlanta Area:
Atlanta Area

Overall: It should give a solid 10-4-0 Spread (10 Republicans, 4 Democrats, 0 Swings), with all 4 Democratic districts being African-American Majority ones. To break it down by Area, we go 6-3 in the Atlanta Metro Area, 2-0 in the rest of Northern Georgia, and 2-1 in Southern Georgia We should win the 12th and 8th pretty easily, and also the new 14th. The current map only had two African-American majority districts, though it has 4 others with over 40% of the population being black. Basically I packed Southern Georgia’s Blacks into the 2nd district, cut out the white parts of the current 4th and 5th to make the 14th, and made some small adjustments to the Atlanta suburb districts. I also dissected John Barrow and Jim Marshall’s districts, and made them all strongly Republican. The only real leap of faith here is the 9th, which wraps across the Border From Alabama to South Carolina, which was done to spread out Northern Georgia’s heavily Republican tilt

1st District (Dark Blue, Southern Georgia): This district loses most of its territory around Savannah, and some of the northern rural areas, but gains some largely white areas in the Southwestern part of the state. As a whole the district moves a few points toward the Democratic Column due to increased percentage of African Americans, but overall remains a staunchly Republican district. Incumbent Jack Kingston is barely drawn out of this district however, so it could be an open seat depending on if he runs in the 1st or 3rd. Partisan rating of about R + 14.

2nd District (Dark Green, Southern Georgia): This district is probably the ugliest drawn district in the country, as it includes Georgia’s Southwestern black belt, and the heavily black areas around Columbus, Albany, Macon, and Savannah, which has a finger connection drawn straight across the state. Overall, it’s about 60% black, and therefore solidly Democratic. Incumbent Black Blue Dog Democrat Sanford Bishop is probably guaranteed re-election, unless a primary challenge from the left emerges to unseat him, although Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall are also in this district. Partisan rating of about D + 11.

3rd District (Purple, Southern Georgia): This district is based out of the Middle of Southern Georgia, and reaches almost completely across the state, from Marion County near Columbus to Savannah. It is vastly different than the current 3rd, based in Atlanta’s Western Suburbs, but is somewhat similar to the old 3rd, which covered much of the same territory. This district is strongly Republican, and is similar to the 1st in terms of demographics. 1st District Incumbent Jack Kingston has his home him this district, though 12th district Democrat John Barrow may also run, as his district has been dissected. Partisan rating of about R + 12.

4th District (Red, Atlanta Area): This district covers most of Southern DeKalb County, most of Rockdale county, and parts of Fulton, Newton, and Gwinnet. It is 64% African American, and heavily Democratic, being only about 20% White. Incumbent Hank Johnson is guaranteed re-election. Partisan rating of about D + 30

5th District (Yellow, Atlanta Area): This district covers Southern Atlanta, parts of Northern DeKalb, and western Gwinnet. It is 60% African American, but only 14% white, with Hispanics amounting to close to 20% of the population. As a result, it’s overwhelmingly Democratic, and therefore safe for incumbent John Lewis. Partisan rating of about D + 35.

6th District (Cyan, Atlanta Area): This district has lost most Northern Fulton, but has gained most of Cobb County instead. It remains heavily Republican, though a bit less white than the current 6th. Incumbent Tom Price’s home has been drawn into the newly-created 14th, though 11th district incumbent Phil Gingrey has been drawn in. Partisan rating of about R + 16

7th District (Grey, Atlanta Area): This district is comprised of eastern Gwinnet county, Barrow, and Walton Counties, and part of Oconee county. It is heavily Republican, and almost identical to the current county. Incumbent John Linder is safe here. Partisan Rating of about R + 16

8th District (Light Blue, Atlanta Area): This district is comprised of Northern Columbus, and most of the South Atlanta Suburbs. As a result, it is heavily White and Heavily Republican, being the spiritual successor to the current 3rd district, though the 3rd district incumbent, Lynn Westmoreland, is in the 11th district. Whoever winds up being the republican nominee is essentially guaranteed the seat. Partisan rating of about R + 20

9th District (Light Blue, Tennessee and South Carolina Border): This district is radically different than the current disposition, as it wraps from the Northwest Corner of the state down to Augusta on the Eastern border. It is drawn to disperse some of the heavily republican tilt of Northern Georgia to the rest of the state, as it includes the heavily black parts of Augusta. As a result it is more African American and therefore more Democratic, but remains a solidly Republican seat. Incumbent Nathan Deal is drawn out of this district, making it an open seat but very likely to remain in the Republican column. Partisan rating of about R + 20.

10th District (Pink, Northern Atlanta Area): This district is comprised of the heavily Republican Northern Atlanta Exurbs, stretching from Gordon county in the west to Jackson in the east. The only part not sharing the heavily republican tilt is the city of Athens, which is mostly in the district (a small bit is in the neighboring 12th), but is nowhere near large enough to affect the politics of this district. 9th District incumbent Nathan Deal is in this district, and is virtually guaranteed re-election. Partisan rating of about R + 18

11th District (Light Green, Western Atlanta): This district is comprised of part of the western Suburbs and Exurbs of Atlanta, and stretches from Chattooga County in the North to Coweta County in the south. Current 3rd District Incumbent Lynn Westmoreland is likely to keep a solid lock on this seat. Partisan rating of about R + 19

12th District (Pale-Blue, East-Central Georgia): This district stretches from the white parts of Augusta to the white parts of Macon, and also includes a good part of Rural Southern Georgia. It is heavily Republican, being 70% white, and current 10th District Incumbent Paul Broun Jr. is drawn into the district, though current 8th district incumbent Democratic John Marshall might run. Partisan rating of about R + 15

13th District (Tan, Atlanta Area): This district covers the Eastern and Southern Suburbs of Atlanta, and is over 50% Black. Hispanics and Asian populations are also high here, pushing the white population to just under 25%. It remains overwhelmingly Democratic, and incumbent David Scott is Safe for re-election. Partisan rating of about D + 20.

14th District (Brown, Atlanta Area): This district comprises most of Northern Fulton and DeKalb counties, and is heavily White, Suburban, and Republican. 6th District Incumbent Tom Price is in this district, and is probably guaranteed to win this seat for the Republicans. Partisan rating of about R + 14.

Not too shabby a pickup. I’ll probably be working on South Carolina next