Now or Never PAC (NONpac) released the results of a recent statewide survey in Wisconsin today that shows Republican Tommy Thompson trailing Democrat Tammy Baldwin by three-points (45% – 48%), well within the 4.4% margin of error of the survey of 500 likely general election voters.

This survey is the second poll showing Thompson gaining on Baldwin.  Marquette University released a survey earlier this week showing Thompson and Baldwin within four-points (44%-48%).

Thompson’s competitive ballot position is a significant shift for Republicans in Wisconsin, as Baldwin was found to be leading Thompson by nine-points in a mid-September Marquette University poll.

In addition to showing the race tightening, the NONpac survey also reveals a variety of interesting findings that indicate that Baldwin’s support could be on-pace to deteriorate even further in the coming weeks, presenting the Republicans with a chance of winning the U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin:

  • Thompson is tied with Baldwin among male voters (47%-47%), and is holding his own among female voters (43%-49%) despite the advantage one would assume Baldwin would have with women voters because of her party and shared gender.  This is an especially troubling statistic for Baldwin after her party’s standard-barer spent millions of dollars and months trying to paint Republicans as waging a “war on women.”
  • Youth voters (age 18-34) prefer Thompson over Baldwin.  Again, this is a disturbing number for Baldwin since a vast majority of these voters generally swing toward the Democrat candidate for top-of-the-ticket races.
  • Thompson is winning over more cross-over voters than Baldwin, as Thompson carries 8% of those who voted for Obama in 2008 compared to just 2% of 2008 McCain voters who are supporting Baldwin.

The Now or Never PAC Wisconsin U.S. Senate survey was conducted by top Republican research firm WPA Research (formerly Wilson Research Strategies), and was fielded over two nights – October 1-2, 2012.  The sample was demographically and geographically representative of the likely general election population statewide.  WPA Research principals have polled for over 100 current and former members of the U.S. Congress and have a record of accurately predicting election dynamics and outcomes.