I lost faith in the polls since the second week of September. In the last six weeks, I have considered myself suffering from poll-result depression. Seeing poll results that gave Obama a lead up to 15% made me sick and nauseous. Maybe I was part of those who got the virus being spread by the Team Obama. Said virus was first used to attack the Hillary voters. The survivors are now called as the PUMAs. Thanks to Hillbuzz for making a correct prognosis of my disease. Three things the Obamedia will do to depress republican turnout and help Obama.
Thank God that I have successfully gotten rid of it. Thanks to the encouragement of my conservative friends, RS diaries, the PUMAs, Joe the Plumber, Sarah Palin’s encouraging speeches, the AT, and other conservative bloggers. I am a healthy man again. Now, I am more confident that no poll result can ever make me depressed again.
My cure? Reading the advice of National Center for Public Polling . Here is the list of key questions that NCPP recommends in assessing polls.
- Who did the poll?
- Who paid for the poll and why was it done?
- How many people were interviewed for the survey?
- How were those people chosen?
- What area (nation, state, or region) or what group (teachers,lawyers, Democratic voters, etc.) were these people chosen from?
- Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed?
- Who should have been interviewed and was not? Or do response rates matter?
- When was the poll done?
- How were the interviews conducted?
- What about polls on the Internet or World Wide Web?
- What is the sampling error for the poll results?
- Who’s on first?
- What other kinds of factors can skew poll results?
- What questions were asked?
- In what order were the questions asked?
- What about “push polls?”
- What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say the same thing? If they are different, why are they different?
- What about exit polls?
- What else needs to be included in the report of the poll?
- So I’ve asked all the questions. The answers sound good. Should we report the results?
As long as “not beyond 20% lead for Obama”, I can handily accept poll results. It’s my first time again to visit the RCP website and see the status of the polls. I can now even smile while reading poll articles. Let me publish here the October 30 results of RCP (basically October 29).
Fox, IBD and the Battleground numbers are very promising. They are generally consistent with the exit polls of early voting in Florida and Virginia. They are consistent with the turnouts of the people who went to the recent McCain/Palin rallies in the battleground states. The rest of other polls are bogus to me especially when I apply the NCPP rule. Their assumptions on voting preference of the registered voters are simply not true. There are many Registered Democrats voting for McCain than what has been assumed by these biased polls.
Even the Rasmussen and the Traditional Gallup can nolonger be trusted. They moved their numbers today +2 points in favor of Obama. I suspect that these two polls make “an implicit assumption” that the recent Obama’s Informercial would give more votes for Obama. This is simply untrue. Only the solid Obama fans are pleased with the informercials. Some of my independent friends find the said informercial “disgusting” as Obama teaches America to cling to Government for food and shelter… and never to rely on their own God-given talents and strengths to create “new wealth’ that will permanently make themselves better.
Obama now leads in Rasmussen and Gallup Traditional by 5 points. But who cares? I am now more fascinated with the turnouts of the exit polls on the early voters.
[Rasmussen poll results] (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/oldercontent/home/mostrecentarticles/mostrecent_articles) in Ohio, NC, and VA is a rollercoaster ride within the margin of error.
Nonetheless, I won’t be intimidated by national poll results anymore. Less than a week before the main election day, I am now more interested on the minute details of the news, rather than on the national poll results with inherent margin of errors and high degree of undecideds.
A conservative friend of mine (he’s a Jew) has advised me to continue to pray to my God and ask that it is God’s will to elect the McCain/Palin ticket as the next leaders of our great country.
What matters now is for all the conservatives and independents out there to vote for the McCain/Palin ticket in order to preserve our liberty as Americans. It is our liberty to create wealth and to make something good for ourselves that will save us from our current economic woes and other social problems.
Let’s vote for McCain/Palin ticket!
Never mind the biased media-based polls.