Beware The Polls

Two new polls show Barack Obama ahead in New York by 5 points and in Virginia by 4 points.

If you believe that I have some oceanfront property in Iowa to sell you.

New York went for John Kerry by 19 points while Virginia went for George W. Bush by 8 points. For you community organizers out there that is a 27 point differential. No way that four years later these two states are a point apart.

It is likely that both polls are wrong but the one for Virginia by Survey USA has some obvious red flags.Their sample is 33 R, 37 D, 23 I. According to CNN’s exit polls in 2004 VA voters were 39 R, 35 D, 26 I. So SUSA has move the Republican count down 8 points vs the Democrats.

Also it appears that they over sampled the youngest voters and the oldest voters but because they use different age groups than CNN it is not possible to be sure.

In any case if Obama is only 5 points up in NY then he is likely down double digits in VA. Conversely if McCain is down 4 in Virginia then he’s almost certainly down by 20 points or more in New York.

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show a two point McCain lead as does the Battleground poll. McCain’s bounce seems to be very gently settling down in contrast to Obama’s abrupt fall after the GOP convention.

If McCain maintains that 2 point edge for another day or two it may well solidify until the first debate.