Diary

The Bouncing Polls Bring Glad Tidings

I can’t recall a year where the polls have been as weird as 2008. For instance in several polls Obama’s numbers go up when screened for “likely voters”. This is unusual as typically Republican voters are more reliable than Democrats.

Adding to the oddity is that the state polls are lagging the national polls so we see McCain up 2.5 in the national numbers yet still behind in the various electoral vote projections.

As has been noted elsewhere on RedState, statistically this is very unlikely. A candidate with a 2.5 lead nationally almost certainly would not lose the election. Of course it COULD happen but it would extremely unlikely.

However with the latest polls it appears that McCain-Palin is starting to make some fairly major moves. Florida is now looking solid for the GOP. Ohio is also moving onto firmer ground with the exception of the Quinnipiac poll.

Red states such as Georgia and North Carolina are looking like potential blowouts while blue states Pennsylvania and Michigan have tightened up. Those types of conditions are very bad news for the Democrats.

There has been much talk about the Bradley Effect and thus far I’ve seen no one argue that it won’t exist this year. If that unknown is considered, then the math can really get ugly for Obama-Biden. In states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan that factor could have a huge impact on the race to 270.

Barring a debate stumble or some October surprise that we can’t anticipate, this election would appear to be moving solidly in the GOP’s direction.