Diary

Did Dan Rather Certify Iran's Election Results?

Update: Andrew Sullivan breaks down the graph further.  Not solid proof of fraud but still brings up questions.

Recall a few years ago how documents damning George W. Bush as a lazy do-nothing National Guardsmen turned out to be all out fakes created in Microsoft Word?  Did Dan Rather make his way to Tehran to certify the latest election results?

The Tehran Buereu (a self-declared independent news source) has posted an interesting graph showing that the election results between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi are in an almost perfect plot line across all points at which results were given.

In short, somebody in the election bureau used an equation early on in the day and seems to have applied the same ratio at other intervals on up to the final result.

Here’s the graphic which they post here:

They note:

Statistically and mathematically, it is impossible to maintain such perfect linear relations between the votes of any two candidates in any election — and at all stages of vote counting. This is particularly true about Iran, a large country with a variety of ethnic groups who usually vote for a candidate who is ethnically one of their own. For example, in the present elections, Mr. Mousavi is an Azeri and speaks Turkish. The Azeries make up 1/4 of all the eligible voters in Iran and in his trips to Azerbaijan province, where most of the Azeri population lives, Mr. Mousavi had been greeted by huge rallies in support of his campaign. Likewise, Mr. Karroubi, the other reformist candidate, is a Lor. But according to the data released by Iran’s Interior Ministry, in both cases, Mr. Ahmadinejad has far outdone both candidates in their own provinces of birth and among their own ethnic populations.

Juan Cole makes some excellent points here.