All day long I have listened to Fox News and their “analysts” bemoaning the latest polls and what they mean, state by state, and, in some cases, county by county. Having examined the methodologies of the major pollsters, I must say I greet their numbers with skepticism. Why? First, the pollsters do not just ask the potential voter for whom they plan to vote. There are a series of questions which may lead or bias the voter. Then, there is the split. It is not often that you see an equal number of democrats and republicans responding to a poll. In every case I have seen, democrats outnumber republicans. One reason given was that republicans are more likely to hang-up when then realize they are being polled. Then, you need to see how the pollsters “adjust” the raw numbers. They make assumptions about the probability of certain demographics to actually go vote, they apply weights to factors such as age, gender, race, etc. These can easily skew the results, especially if the raw numbers are close. Finally, they do not factor in the possibility that some of the electorate are just fibbing to them. We have all heard about the “Bradley” effect by now. In fact, the Obama campaign insiders have suggested that they are “worried” about any state in which their lead is less than 10 points. This is to be sure they cover the Bradley effect. The point of all of this is simply, that we should not hang too much on these polls. The only numbers that matter are the ones that are counted on Tuesday night. I happen to be optimistic, that McCain will pull it out. I won’t bore you with why, but it is more than just a gut feeling.
The media factor has a tremendous influence on the overall tone of the campaign. The fact that the press has so blatantly supported Obama has led to the republican faithful getting depressed. Surely, if you keep hammering negatives, those within earshot will get down about it. The Obama campaign has, in fact, employed this as a strategy. Notice that the democrat pundits on the boob-tube are claiming victory, yet Obama, himself, is still pounding the campaign trail, as if he was desperately behind. Why? The pundits are implementing the “strategy of defeatism”. Tell them that they are defeated, tell them enough times, and they will believe it (ever heard of Tokyo Rose?). So, the dems tell the reps that they have lost, and the reps, eventually, start to believe it. Meanwhile, the candidate, himself, is out fighting for his political life. Fortunately for Obama, it would seem that most of the electorate are too stupid to notice the duplicity of this approach. It is this same stronghold of ignorance that has allowed the media to demonize G.W. Bush, paint Palin as a bimbo and let Obama get away with some really big whopper lies. Even the fact check website is on a Koolaid diet. I have found errors in their analysis of several Obama/Biden assertions. It is truly amazing that McCain is still within striking distance. This actually, gives me hope.
So, RedStaters, keep a stiff upper. There are surprises yet to come and still time. A little prayer sure won’t hurt.
PS: The Democrats have been trying to hedge against the “Bradley” effect by employing the “ACORN” effect. This will NOT be a fair election, no matter the result.