Diary

John Spratt will split!

I have no John Spratt the longest serving member of the South Carolina delegation will retire this year. Spratt is only up by 7 points against his likeliest challenger State Sen. Mick Mulvaney and liberal biased Politico tries to spin it as a positive thing. Spratt was elected in 1982 and has rarely faced tight races. The district is 32% black and without 2008 level black turnout Spratt will likely split and could definitely lose. The Democrat polling out Public Policy Polling is probably underestimating Spratt’s vulnerability in a district that Bush and McCain won by a decent margin and Bush won it by a big margin 2004. Spratt seems a prime candidate for retirement in 2010 and will definitely retire in 2012 when the district is re-drawn as more republican when South Carolina adds a House seat in 2012. Boswell is probably also done given his age 76 and marginal district is most likely gone after the census when Iowa loses a seat. The Dems would push the more moderate Boswell out in favor of the progressive Braley and the Socialist Loesbeck. Boswell has never got more than 56% in his last 4 runs and polls worse in midterms.