We will not forget those Obamacare votes. We will not forgive being called a racist because we don’t support this terrible man and his awful agenda. We will not be silenced.
-Kevin Dujan (HT: HillBuzz.com)
In 2008, a movement was born. In 2008 the GOP seemed like a dying man crawling his last 100 yards through the desert. In 2008, it appeared the Democratic Party would be running America for at least the next 12 years. Now, the movement born in 2008 truly emerges. Now, we see a new and more positive reality.
The reliable DNC pom-pom wavers at The Cook Political Report offer us the following projection.
At this point, only 190 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 198 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 47 seats are in the Toss Up column. While there are certain to be at least 43 new members of the House thanks to 41 open seats and two vacancies, between 40 and 50 incumbents (over 95 percent of them Democrats) are likely to lose their seats, making for possibly the largest freshman class since 1992.
UVA Professor and Democratic Party political activist Larry Sabato earned the nickname “Larry Sabotage” for sending his graduate students into the hinterlands to find more stories that would help Jim Webb win George Allen’s Senate seat. He paid them with state taxpayer funds as research assistants for the assignment, and told them to report anything that could be used to make Senator Allen appear more racist. His predicted outcome for Nov 2 follows below.
We believe +47 was the right call, though at the time the number was considered startling to most. The likely switch of the House to the GOP was fiercely disputed by Democrats at that time. Many other nonpartisan prognosticators had estimated Republican gains as being below the 39 net required for a GOP takeover. Even at this late date, we see no need to do anything but tweak the total R gains, based on more complete information now available to all. Thus, we are raising the total to +55 net R seats.
So what changed between now and 2008? ObamaCare and Cap and Trade played a role. The composition of the electorate changed when voters saw precisely how Marxian the Democrat Congressional Caucus had truly become. However, more than just stupid policy afflicts the Democratic Caucus.
According to Kevin Dujan, they have made a conscious decision to exclude a significant portion of their traditional base from any patronage or power. First, he describes how the Democrats have marginalized parts of their coalition.
What it’s really about is what the Democrat Party did to Hillary that alienated tens of millions of Jacksonian/Clintonian/middleclass Americans from the party permanently — and this includes what the party and Obama campaign did to Hillary’s supporters themselves (ie, calling them racists, telling them they weren’t wanted, calling them bitter clingers, etc.). For the first time in our lives, so many of us former Democrats were given an Alinsky taste of what the Democrat Party really stand for…what it really believes…and how it really feels about America, our Constitution, our economy, and our way of life. Howard Dean, Donna Brazile, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Obama took the mask off the Democrat Party…and the Leftist gorgon that lurked beneath is something America-loving, middleclass, Jacksonian/Clintonian Democrats want nothing to do with.
(Hillbuzz, Ob cit.)
I initially missed this story completely. When Democratic Congressman (AL-5) and Slimy Human Being Parker Griffith switched parties, the Parker-scum blinded me to the change afoot in many traditional Democratic constituencies. You live or die with Jacksonian America in AL-5. If Andrew Jackson got out of his grave and walked around, he’d probable choose to retire to (AL-5) and not pay state taxes on his benefits.
In the Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary, and the South Carolina Democratic Senate Primaries, I kept asking the question. “Where are the Jacksonian Democrats?” Neither Alvin Greene nor Bill Halter would have gotten within sonar range of a Democratic Party Senatorial nomination with Jacksonian Democrats at the table in this year’s annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinners.
This Hillbuzz post makes it at least quasi-official. Jacksonians are no longer full-status citizens in The Democratic Party. The tactic of calling their own racist in order to win political skirmishes within the party has left The Democrats without a significant chunk of their coalition. These people are furious, they feel betrayed. According to Gallup, they are voting Republican in 2010.
Perhaps nothing would make James Carville, Jim Webb or Bill Clinton enjoy 6 Nov 2010 more than getting to drop in on the dispirited Obama White House and tell The Boy President to man up and drink his hemlock. The only part of this scenario that even remotely bothers me is the fact that I would be forced to spend 24 hours of my life actually liking Bill Clinton, Jim Webb and James Carville.
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