What would a Cruz-Rubio collaboration to defeat Trump look like?
Super Tuesday has reduced the pre-convention possibilities to two:
- Donald Trump will win more than 1237 delegates and win the nomination.
- No one will win 1237 delegates and there will be a contested convention.
If Trump fails to get the 1237 delegates, Cruz and Rubio should agree to the following tie-breaking rule:
On June 8th the candidate with the most delegates between the two of them will receive the other’s support for the presidential nomination, while the runner up will receive support from the first place finisher for the Veep spot.
- Cruz and Rubio need to collaborate on March 15th and compete thereafter.
- By March 15th, assuming Trump does very well, his high water mark might be around 465 delegates.
- Neither Rubio nor Cruz will leave the race before March 15th and they need to decide whether they will cooperate. If Trump wins either Florida or Ohio, he will be unstoppable. That is why they need to cooperate on March 15th.
- The only person who can win Florida besides Trump is Rubio. The only person who can win Ohio besides Trump is Kasich, assuming he stays in.
- Florida: Cruz needs to ask his supporters to support Rubio in Florida. It would be wonderful if Kasich did the same thing, but his narcissism runs deep (not Trumpian to be sure, but remarkably self-involved).
- Ohio: Rubio and Cruz both need ask their supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio.
- Illinois-Missouri Compromise: Rubio needs to ask his supporters to vote for Cruz in Missouri. Cruz needs to ask his supporters to vote for Rubio in Illinois.
- 361 delegates are at stake on March 15th. If this cooperation worked, Trump would be lucky to win 35 delegates on March 15th. He would have about 500 delegates with about 878 left to be allocated. It is highly unlikely Trump could win another 737 delegates.
- At a contested convention, an alliance of Cruz and Rubio and a ticket based on the tie-breaker would likely attract a majority of convention delegates.