Diary

UPDATED: Cruz Can Still Have Delegate Lead Even After Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

UPDATE: According to Greenpapers, Cruz will get 15 delegates not 10 so Cruz’s numbers will likely improve by 5 delegates. I’ve adjusted total’s below. I also updated North Carolina which shows Cruz getting one more delegate.

Original Post:

Surprisingly, Cruz can still get more delegates than Trump by the convention. However, after last night’s debacle, it is very unlikely he can get to 1237 on first ballot. See delegate table and projections below.
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Last week I warned about how Rubio and Kasich staying in the race could cost Cruz Illinois and Missouri. The results were even worse than I expected.
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Cruz lost 3 CD in Missouri by less than 1 point!!!
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That is 15 delegates.
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He lost the state by less than 0.2 points!!!
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That is another 12 delegates for statewide winner.
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He lost 2 more CD by less than 3 points and one more by less than 5 points.
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That is an additional 15 delegates.
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—-Rubio got over 6% of the vote and Carson got almost 1%.
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—-All told, Rubio’s choice swung 42 delegates from Cruz to Trump in Missouri alone. I have not seen detailed results from Illinois, but Cruz only lost the entire state by less than 8.5% Rubio’s vote total 8.53%. Those votes–even if some went to Trump would very likely allowed Cruz to win more CD.
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However, I am most upset about this:

Remember, last week, how we were told polls showing Rubio destroying Trump among early voters?
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And that is why Rubio should stay in?
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Turns out that appears not to be true at all. Apparently Rubio got destroyed in early vote. I am sure the Rubio campaign knew this and yet they stayed in the race….
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Anyway, the news is not great but Cruz is still in the race!!
Hopefully there will be little vote splitting from now on. (This means you Kasich!) Trump and Cruz delegates will get to set the rules for the convention. They will maintain the 8 state rule that will keep Kasich from even being allowed to be voted on by delegates. (Must win majority of 8 STATE’s delegates to be on the ballot)
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My estimates show that Cruz can get 1030 pledged delegates to Trump’s 984. Although there will be approximately 152 unpledged delegates, that would still leave Cruz short of 1237 even if 100% voted for him. This means the vote would go to a second ballot when delegates would be free to vote for other candidates.
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My guess is that Cruz would win this battle with Trump.
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Here are my projections. (Click on image below)
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Delegate Table for Redstate after Super Tuesday Florida UPDATED for Misssouri