Diary

Amazing! Even if Trump Wins Florida, Ohio Winner Take-All He Does Not Have Enough Delegates to Win

If my calculations and estimates are correct, even if Trump were to win Florida and Ohio’s winner tax all primaries he could easily still end up short of the nomination. In fact, he could even win Maryland, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey’s Winner Take-all and STILL be short.

This is not ideal, but no candidate seems willing to quit.

So let’s not panic…yet. Even if Trump wins all the states above, he is still short of delegates needed. The key date seems to be March 16. This is the day after Florida. After this date, is the beginning of some key winner-take-all states. If Rubio loses Florida, he should drop out.  If he wins, then those 99 delegates buy Rubio and Cruz a lot of time to stay in the race.

However, if Rubio loses Florida and those 99 delegates go to Trump, the delegate count requires that the race no longer be divided. This calculation assumes beating Trump in California as well as in other states (see below).

Note: Please make sure my calculations make sense. (I did not award unbound delegates as I am unfamiliar how those delegates are awarded in each state) Kasich has no chance, but the delegate math shows he can stay in.

State Date Delegates Estimated Trump Primary/ Delegate Open/
Trump % Caucus Allocation Closed
(1,237 Needed to Win) 2,472 316
IAIowa February 12/1 30 7 Caucus Proportional Closed
NHNew Hampshire February 92/9 23 11 Primary Proportional* Open**
SCSouth Carolina February 202/20 50 50 Primary Winner Take All Open
NVNevada February 232/23 30 14 Caucus Proportional Closed
ALAlabama March 13/1 50 36 Primary Proportional*#∇ Open
AKAlaska March 13/1 28 11 Caucus Proportional* Closed
ARArkansas March 13/1 40 16 Primary Proportional*# Open
GAGeorgia March 13/1 76 40 Primary Proportional*#∇ Open**
MAMassachusetts March 13/1 42 22 Primary Proportional* Open**
MNMinnesota March 13/1 38 10 Caucus Proportional*#∇ Open
OKOklahoma March 13/1 43 12 Primary Proportional*#∇ Closed
TNTennessee March 13/1 58 31 Primary Proportional*#∇ Open
TXTexas March 13/1 155 33 Primary Proportional*#∇ Open
VTVermont March 13/1 16 6 Primary Proportional*# Open
VAVirginia March 13/1 49 17 Primary Proportional Open
COColorado1 March 13/1 37   Caucus Unbound Closed
WYWyoming1 March 13/1 29   Caucus Unbound Closed
KSKansas March 53/5 40 30% 12 Caucus Proportional*∇ Closed
KYKentucky March 53/5 45 30% 13.5 Caucus Proportional* Closed
LALouisiana March 53/5 47 40% 18.8 Primary Proportional*∇ Closed
MEMaine March 53/5 23 20% 4.6 Caucus Proportional*# Closed
PRPuerto Rico March 63/6 23 30% 6.9 Primary Proportional*# Open
HIHawaii March 83/8 19 30% 5.7 Caucus Proportional*∇ Closed
IDIdaho March 83/8 32 30% 9.6 Primary Proportional*# Closed
MIMichigan March 83/8 59 40% 23.6 Primary Proportional*# Closed
MSMississippi March 83/8 40 50% 20 Primary Proportional*∇ Open
GUGuam March 123/12 9   Convention Unbound Closed
DCDistrict of Columbia March 123/12 19 20% 3.8 Convention Proportional* Closed
FLFlorida March 153/15 99 100% 99 Primary Winner Take All Closed
ILIllinois March 153/15 69 100% 69 Primary Winner Take All Open
MOMissouri March 153/15 52 0% 52 Primary Winner Take All Open
NCNorth Carolina March 153/15 72 40% 28.8 Primary Proportional Open**
MPNorthern Marianas March 153/15 9 0%   Caucus Winner Take All Closed
OHOhio March 153/15 66 100% 66 Primary Winner Take All Open**
VIVirgin Islands March 193/19 9 0%   Caucus Winner Take All Open
ASAmerican Samoa March 223/22 9 0%   Convention Unbound Open
AZArizona March 223/22 58 0%   Primary Winner Take All Closed
UTUtah March 223/22 40 40% 16 Caucus Proportional*# Closed
NDNorth Dakota April 14/1 28   Caucus Unbound Closed
WIWisconsin April 54/5 42 0%   Primary Winner Take All Open
NYNew York April 194/19 95 60% 57 Primary Proportional*#∇ Closed
CTConnecticut April 264/26 28 60% 16.8 Primary Proportional*#∇ Closed
DEDelaware April 264/26 16 0%   Primary Winner Take All Closed
MDMaryland April 264/26 38 100% 38 Primary Winner Take All Closed
PAPennsylvania April 264/26 71 100% 71 Primary Winner Take All Closed
RIRhode Island April 264/26 19 60% 11.4 Primary Proportional*∇ Open**
INIndiana May 35/3 57 0%   Primary Winner Take All Open
NENebraska May 105/10 36 0%   Primary Winner Take All Closed
WVWest Virginia May 105/10 34 60% 20.4 Primary Direct Election Open**
OROregon May 175/17 28 20% 5.6 Primary Proportional Closed
WAWashington May 245/24 44 20% 8.8 Primary Proportional*∇ Closed
CACalifornia June 76/7 172 0%   Primary Winner Take All Closed
MTMontana June 76/7 27 0%   Primary Winner Take All Open
NJNew Jersey June 76/7 51 100% 51 Primary Winner Take All Open**
NMNew Mexico June 76/7 24 40% 9.6 Primary Proportional* Closed
SDSouth Dakota June 76/7 29 0%   Primary Winner Take All Closed
Need 1237 to Win Trump 1054.9