If my calculations and estimates are correct, even if Trump were to win Florida and Ohio’s winner tax all primaries he could easily still end up short of the nomination. In fact, he could even win Maryland, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey’s Winner Take-all and STILL be short.
This is not ideal, but no candidate seems willing to quit.
So let’s not panic…yet. Even if Trump wins all the states above, he is still short of delegates needed. The key date seems to be March 16. This is the day after Florida. After this date, is the beginning of some key winner-take-all states. If Rubio loses Florida, he should drop out. If he wins, then those 99 delegates buy Rubio and Cruz a lot of time to stay in the race.
However, if Rubio loses Florida and those 99 delegates go to Trump, the delegate count requires that the race no longer be divided. This calculation assumes beating Trump in California as well as in other states (see below).
Note: Please make sure my calculations make sense. (I did not award unbound delegates as I am unfamiliar how those delegates are awarded in each state) Kasich has no chance, but the delegate math shows he can stay in.
| State | Date | Delegates | Estimated | Trump | Primary/ | Delegate | Open/ |
| Trump % | Caucus | Allocation | Closed | ||||
| (1,237 Needed to Win) | – | 2,472 | 316 | – | – | – | |
| IAIowa | February 12/1 | 30 | 7 | Caucus | Proportional | Closed | |
| NHNew Hampshire | February 92/9 | 23 | 11 | Primary | Proportional* | Open** | |
| SCSouth Carolina | February 202/20 | 50 | 50 | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Open | |
| NVNevada | February 232/23 | 30 | 14 | Caucus | Proportional | Closed | |
| ALAlabama | March 13/1 | 50 | 36 | Primary | Proportional*#∇ | Open | |
| AKAlaska | March 13/1 | 28 | 11 | Caucus | Proportional* | Closed | |
| ARArkansas | March 13/1 | 40 | 16 | Primary | Proportional*# | Open | |
| GAGeorgia | March 13/1 | 76 | 40 | Primary | Proportional*#∇ | Open** | |
| MAMassachusetts | March 13/1 | 42 | 22 | Primary | Proportional* | Open** | |
| MNMinnesota | March 13/1 | 38 | 10 | Caucus | Proportional*#∇ | Open | |
| OKOklahoma | March 13/1 | 43 | 12 | Primary | Proportional*#∇ | Closed | |
| TNTennessee | March 13/1 | 58 | 31 | Primary | Proportional*#∇ | Open | |
| TXTexas | March 13/1 | 155 | 33 | Primary | Proportional*#∇ | Open | |
| VTVermont | March 13/1 | 16 | 6 | Primary | Proportional*# | Open | |
| VAVirginia | March 13/1 | 49 | 17 | Primary | Proportional | Open | |
| COColorado1 | March 13/1 | 37 | Caucus | Unbound | Closed | ||
| WYWyoming1 | March 13/1 | 29 | Caucus | Unbound | Closed | ||
| KSKansas | March 53/5 | 40 | 30% | 12 | Caucus | Proportional*∇ | Closed |
| KYKentucky | March 53/5 | 45 | 30% | 13.5 | Caucus | Proportional* | Closed |
| LALouisiana | March 53/5 | 47 | 40% | 18.8 | Primary | Proportional*∇ | Closed |
| MEMaine | March 53/5 | 23 | 20% | 4.6 | Caucus | Proportional*# | Closed |
| PRPuerto Rico | March 63/6 | 23 | 30% | 6.9 | Primary | Proportional*# | Open |
| HIHawaii | March 83/8 | 19 | 30% | 5.7 | Caucus | Proportional*∇ | Closed |
| IDIdaho | March 83/8 | 32 | 30% | 9.6 | Primary | Proportional*# | Closed |
| MIMichigan | March 83/8 | 59 | 40% | 23.6 | Primary | Proportional*# | Closed |
| MSMississippi | March 83/8 | 40 | 50% | 20 | Primary | Proportional*∇ | Open |
| GUGuam | March 123/12 | 9 | Convention | Unbound | Closed | ||
| DCDistrict of Columbia | March 123/12 | 19 | 20% | 3.8 | Convention | Proportional* | Closed |
| FLFlorida | March 153/15 | 99 | 100% | 99 | Primary | Winner Take All | Closed |
| ILIllinois | March 153/15 | 69 | 100% | 69 | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Open |
| MOMissouri | March 153/15 | 52 | 0% | 52 | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Open |
| NCNorth Carolina | March 153/15 | 72 | 40% | 28.8 | Primary | Proportional | Open** |
| MPNorthern Marianas | March 153/15 | 9 | 0% | Caucus | Winner Take All | Closed | |
| OHOhio | March 153/15 | 66 | 100% | 66 | Primary | Winner Take All | Open** |
| VIVirgin Islands | March 193/19 | 9 | 0% | Caucus | Winner Take All | Open | |
| ASAmerican Samoa | March 223/22 | 9 | 0% | Convention | Unbound | Open | |
| AZArizona | March 223/22 | 58 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All | Closed | |
| UTUtah | March 223/22 | 40 | 40% | 16 | Caucus | Proportional*# | Closed |
| NDNorth Dakota | April 14/1 | 28 | Caucus | Unbound | Closed | ||
| WIWisconsin | April 54/5 | 42 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Open | |
| NYNew York | April 194/19 | 95 | 60% | 57 | Primary | Proportional*#∇ | Closed |
| CTConnecticut | April 264/26 | 28 | 60% | 16.8 | Primary | Proportional*#∇ | Closed |
| DEDelaware | April 264/26 | 16 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All | Closed | |
| MDMaryland | April 264/26 | 38 | 100% | 38 | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Closed |
| PAPennsylvania | April 264/26 | 71 | 100% | 71 | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Closed |
| RIRhode Island | April 264/26 | 19 | 60% | 11.4 | Primary | Proportional*∇ | Open** |
| INIndiana | May 35/3 | 57 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Open | |
| NENebraska | May 105/10 | 36 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All | Closed | |
| WVWest Virginia | May 105/10 | 34 | 60% | 20.4 | Primary | Direct Election | Open** |
| OROregon | May 175/17 | 28 | 20% | 5.6 | Primary | Proportional | Closed |
| WAWashington | May 245/24 | 44 | 20% | 8.8 | Primary | Proportional*∇ | Closed |
| CACalifornia | June 76/7 | 172 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All∇ | Closed | |
| MTMontana | June 76/7 | 27 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All | Open | |
| NJNew Jersey | June 76/7 | 51 | 100% | 51 | Primary | Winner Take All | Open** |
| NMNew Mexico | June 76/7 | 24 | 40% | 9.6 | Primary | Proportional* | Closed |
| SDSouth Dakota | June 76/7 | 29 | 0% | Primary | Winner Take All | Closed | |
| Need 1237 to Win | Trump | 1054.9 |
