Diary

Early Exit Polls Favor Trump and Cruz, but Good News for Rubio as Well? (UPDATE: Uh oh, Trump may be doing very well)

Here are some key points from Exit polls from ABC:

  • Further in these preliminary results, nearly three-quarters of GOP voters identify themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians – again a record if it holds in final data, up from 65 percent in 2012. (Favorable for Cruz. Although Trump has for some reason been getting support from Evangelicals as well)
  • Additionally, nearly half say it matters “a great deal” to them that a candidate shares their religious beliefs – up very sharply from 26 percent in 2012. (Good for Cruz)
  • Many fewer – but still more than four in 10 – favor deporting undocumented immigrants, another very strong group for Trump in New Hampshire. And, in another helpful result for Trump, four in 10 pick him among five top candidates as best able to handle the economy – twice as many as pick his nearest competitor on this issue, Ted Cruz. (This result I think favors Rubio contrary to ABC. If only 4/10 support deporting undocumented, then that means 6/10 oppose it. If the 4/10 are split between Cruz and Trump, and the 6/10 move for Rubio, it could be a good night for Rubio)
  • Other results are potentially helpful to other candidates. Eight in 10 GOP voters in South Carolina identify themselves as conservative, and four in 10 as very conservative – both on pace to set records in exit poll data in the state back to 1992. (In 2012, for example, 68 percent were conservatives.)  (Favorable for Cruz if that many conservatives show up, however, Rubio supporters also are conservative)
  • The article also points out support for banning Muslim immigration to be very high, however, nation-wide polls also show higher support for this policy but their support is split among all the candidates.

As a Cruz supporter, I am hopeful. But there is potentially good news for Trump and Rubio supporters as well (IMHO)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219

UPDATE: Trump campaign is tweeting to their supports to “ignore the exit polls” “there is still time to get to polls” This sounds like the Trump campaign is worried. Do they know something we don’t?

UPDATE 2: Perhaps good news for Rubio? 4/10 decided late. This might give bigger impact to late Rubio endorsements.

UPDATE 3: Rubio only won late deciders 30% to 28% (fOXNEWS), Trump got 16% Kasich 11%

UPDATE 4: Immigrants given legal status 31% Rubio 20 each for Trump and Cruz.

Update 5: Cruz won 31% of voters who thought terrorism top issue. Trump 27%, Rubio 25%

UPDATE: Trump leads among voters angry with federal government according to FoxNews 38% to Cruz 28% to Rubio 18%. ABC reports 94% angry at federal government. If these questions match up (BIG IF), then that would mean Trump would have at least 36% of vote. OUCH. Hope a bad match between two different polls.