Cross-posted at Unified Patriots

In the next five months a lot of things may happen that have an impact on who wins the presidential contest. We’ve already seen biased analysis by political pundits with their own agenda of either striving for attention or scaring folks. I am not a political pundit, and the only reason I have for writing this piece is to provide a sane and reasonable perspective of the presidential contest. I do believe I am informed with respect to election trends recently and also over the last 20 years. First I will list the states that I believe Obama and Romney have from the start.

Obama starts with 205 electoral votes
1. DC
2. California
3. Colorado
4. Connecticut
5. Delaware
6. Hawaii
7. Illinois
8. Maine
9. Maryland
10. Massachusetts
11. Minnesota
12. New Jersey
13. New York
14. Oregon
15. Rhode Island
16. Vermont
17. Washinngton

Romney starts with 209 electoral votes
1. Alabama
2. Alaska
3. Arizona
4. Arkansas
5. Georgia
6. Idaho
7. Indiana
8. Kansas
9. Kentucky
10. Louisiana
11. Mississippi
12. Montana
13. Nebraska
14. North Carolina
15. North Dakota
16. Oklahoma
17. South Carolina
18. South Dakota
19. Tennessee
20. Texas
21. Utah
22. Virginia
23. West Virginia
24. Wyoming

Romney needs 61 and Obama needs 65 of these 124 electoral votes
1. Florida
2. Iowa
3. Michigan
4. Missouri
5. Nevada
6. New Hampshire
7. New Mexico
8. Ohio
9. Pennsylvania
10. Wisconsin

Scenario 1

Romney gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states
1. Florida
2. Missouri
3. New Hampshire
4. Ohio

Scenario 2

Obama gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states
1. Florida
2. Michigan
3. Nevada
4. New Hampshire
5. Wisconsin

Scenario 3

It’s a 269-269 tie if Romney only wins these additional states
1. Florida
2. Iowa
3. Missouri
4. New Mexico
5. Wisconsin

Scenario 4

Romney wins in 1980 Reagan-like fashion if Obama only wins in these states
1. DC
2. California
3. Delaware
4. Hawaii
5. Illinois
6. Maryland
7. Oregon
8. Rhode Island
9. Vermont

God only knows what will be the final outcome of the 2012 presidential contest. I hope my assumptions about the District of Columbia and 16 states for Obama and the 24 states for Romney are not considered far-fetched. I also hope my assumption regarding the 10 toss-up states is fair. The states in Obama’s column have voted more than 50% of the time in the last 20 years for the Democrat nominee for president. Included in the Romney column are the three states that in 2008 Obama received just over 50% of the vote – Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. Missouri is the only one of the 10 toss-up states where Obama received slightly under 50% of the vote, and over the last 20 years Missouri has voted just over 50% of the time for the Democrat nominee.