2010 US House Pickups in Texas

Texas has 32 House seats, and 12 of these are currently held by a D. There will be a run-off GOP primary on April 13th for six of these twelve. We have a name for a GOP candidate in the 2010 general election for the other six seats. Below is a table where I list these House seats and order them by what I consider the degree of difficulty in winning from least difficult to most difficult. I’d love to see the Rs pick up all 12 of them, but that is not realistic. If the Texas Republicans can unite after the April 13 run-off primary behind the winners I truly believe four of those candidates could defeat the incumbent in the general election.

I’ve only lived in Texas since September of 2009, and I expect a lot of posters that are more informed than I am can correct any errors in my analysis. No matter what district a voter lives in he needs to remember the first vote any D takes is a vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker. That fact alone should make anyone hesitant to vote for a D for House in 2010.

House CD Incumbent 2008 vote pct Challenger
CD 17 Chet Edwards 53.0 % TBD
CD 23 Ciro D. Rodriguez 55.8 % TBD
CD 27 Solomon P. Ortiz 58.0 % TBD
CD 15 Ruben E. Hinojosa 65.7 % TBD
CD 25 Lloyd Doggett 65.8 % Donna Campbell
CD 28 Henry Cuellar 68.7 % Bryan Underwood
CD 20 Charles A. Gonzalez 71.9 % TBD
CD 29 Gene Green 74.6 % Roy Morales
CD 18 Sheila Jackson-Lee 77.3 % John Faulk
CD 16 Silvestre Reyes 82.1 % Tim Besco
CD 30 Eddie Bernice Johnson 82.5 % TBD
CD 9 Al Green 93.6 % Steve Mueller