How Close are Colorado, Minnesota, and Michigan?
I’m not going to pay an enormous amount of attention to the polls until after the conventions, because I expect Obama to get a big bump coming out of Denver (10 points? 15? 20?) and I expect McCain to steadily close that gap after the Republican convention. The race will probably be close by October, but each candidate is going to get a boost between now and then.
But if this batch of polls from Quinnipiac is accurate (big if), Team McCain can feel a little better. Sure, McCain’s only head by 2 percent in Colorado, a red state Bush carried by 4 percent in 2004. But they’ve also got McCain down by 2 in Minnesota and within 4 in Michigan, all of which is within the poll’s margin of error. I’d say if McCain wins either Michigan or Minnesota, he’s almost certain to win. As the 538 map points out, Ohio and Michigan are the tipping point states. If McCain wins Minnesota, he’ll win Ohio and Michigan. Having said that, most polls this year have shown Obama leading Minnesota by a healthy margin.
07/24 10:33 AM Jim Geraghty National Review