Rove talked about this chart on Fox News Sunday (transcript at the link) yesterday, but the chart was not put online until today.

John McCain now leads in the Electoral College for the first time since early June, with 227 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 226 votes and 85 votes as a toss-up. Florida (27 EV) switched from toss-up to McCain to give the Republican his lead. McCain drew closer in both Minnesota (10 EV) and Washington (11 EV), where he now trails by 5 and 4 points respectively, putting both states on the edge of being toss-ups. McCain has also expanded his lead in several red states, such as North Carolina (15 EV), where he went from a 5-point last week to an 11-point lead today. McCain’s lead may be a result of his convention bounce, or it may be a sign of real progress—only time will tell.

Click map for larger view.

Washington and Minnesota on the edge of being toss-ups? If they get there, Obama may be tossing up those waffles. Add to that the very ugly specter of New York possibly being in play. From The New York Post.

Boosted by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state – where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties – and produced deep worries among Democrats.One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.The movement by women toward McCain is being credited to Democratic attacks on Alaska Gov. Palin, last week’s “lipstick on a pig” crack by Obama and to the continuing unhappiness by female Democrats over Obama’s failure to pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.

Hmmm. I guess pigs can fly, at least when they are Republicans.

The Siena poll of likely voters in New York brings Obama the bad news.

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.

Serious question. Is this over? I mean there is no objective reason for a thinking adult to vote for Obama over McCain. Barry has all the earmarks of a flash in the pan, a guy who could be expected to lose in a landslide. Landslides don’t just happen on election day, they start with a trend leading to that result. A blind man can see this is a very bad trend for Obama. Soon-to-be landslide victims flail and insist right up until election day that they will win. They are then discarded on the ash heap of history’s losers with the historians left to sort out how so many voters in the primaries could have been so stupid to nominate such a colossally bad candidate.

H/T Hot Air

Also find Bill Dupray at The Patriot Room