CNN was looping a news piece this morning saying that they have learned that Trump intends to spend upwards of 2M per week to covert his supporters into votes. This seemed odd to me given that we have been told for months that “Trump is surging in the polls” and “Get used to the idea of a Trump nomination”, “Republicans are bracing for a Trump nomination”.
Many right here at RedState, including myself have always question the strength and commitment of the majority of those who claim to be supporting and presumably voting for Trump in the primary. To me this means that Team Trump does too. I have observed as has others; that the bulk Trump’s support seems to be coming from a narrow band of pist off middle aged, mostly white Reagan Democrats and vocal anti immigration blue collar Union types. I know of no primary voting conservative who will vote for Trump. I know many who agree with him on immigration and find it refreshing to see someone not concerned with political correctness.
Pundits and talking heads from all across the political spectrum have stated and restated that polls at this point may not speak to solid support but may instead speak to trends in issues. If the population is reeling from a terrorist attack by radial muslins and Trump comes out first and blasts out that he want to deport all Muslims, of course on the next set of marginally scientific polls, Trump will show strength. If a candidate is out there running a populist type of campaign as Trump is and touches all the talking points, of course any low information voter or adult who picks up the phone will say that they support Trump.
I have always wondered how a Candidate who is clearly a good ways left of center on all the major issues could win the hearts and minds of true conservatives in general and primary voters in particular as the polls and the MSM would have us believe. I’m sure that Trump does have a lot of centrist and slightly right of center soft conservatives towing the line for him. In that group there are surly a few true conservatives that are so pist off at the establishment that they will toss the election and vote for Trump.
In the end it’s going to take Iowa and New Hampshire to begin to shake this thing out. I feel that if Cruz wins Iowa and the three, Trump, Cruz and Rubio are very close at the final bell in New Hampshire then that will go a long way in diminish Trumps inevitability. I sense that Team Trump knows that too.