As Vic Snyder takes the chicken exit instead of his beating like a man, it becomes clear to me that Republicans are actually going to do it and take back the house. I will also throw in a little prediction that Ike Skelton, will be 2010’s version of Jack Brooks. Skelton’s crazy support of Waxman/Markey aka Cap and Trade will be like Brooks support of the assault weapons ban. Ike Skelton had been mostly a sane Democrat until that vote. Skelton has represent probably the second most Republican district in all of Missouri, behind Roy Blunt’s district. I had thought initially Republicans would net 20 to 25 seats. Heck I think they have the net 25 right now. The Dems will not defeat one sitting Republican congressman or Senator. The Dems will get the Cao seat and maybe the Delaware and Mark Kirk’s Open Seat, which are certainly not locks. Melancon’s seat is as good as gone for the Dems making Louisiana a wash. Vitter is looking good. We might have been talking about Vitter 2012 if not the prostitute thing. Even if the Republicans came two or three votes shy from getting the house Gene Taylor and Dan Boren, and Carney could be threats to defect if they don’t lose or retire. Vic Snyder is probably the most liberal white deep south congressman and the most liberal member of the Arkansas delegation.
Dick Morris thinks Republicans have a shot of getting the Senate. They may very well have a shot if Scott Brown wins in Mass. I would love to Evan “the Great Pretender” Bayh lose. We need someone like Daniels or Pence to have real shot of that happening. Hostetler will hold Bayh under 60%, but we need a better candidate. Patty Murray and Russ Feingold deserve top challengers, but none have stepped forward. Tommy Thompson would be the only hope. Paul Ryan is too important to risk against Feingold. He may look at Kohl’s seat 2012, which is sure to be a open seat and a Mark Neumann/Feingold rematch would be a strong challenge. I do not believe the senate is likely to change hands in 2010, but it will in 2012. On the senate side I see atleast 4 Seats. Bennett in Colorado is toast, Blanche Lincoln’s race go even harder with the Snyder retirement, Reid or whoever runs will lose, and Hoeven’s victory is a 100% lock. The senate will be republican controlled after the 2012 election. Ben Nelson will not run for re-election and his seat will flip, Jon Tester will lose to Rehberg, Claire McCaskill will lose to the Republican L.G. Kinder, Bill Nelson will probably retire after facing the prospect of facing Crist or Rubio, or maybe even Connie Mack. Paul Ryan will win Joseph McCarthy’s seat back after nearly 60 years in with Proxmire and Kohl and finally Angelo’s other friend Kent Conrad will lose or retire.