Electoral college 2012 could be a real squeeker (analysis):

The electoral college could be another Bush-Gore in 2012.

Assuming the GOP nominee holds all the McCain states (a safe assumption), and we flip the following states (another safe assumption):

North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, (and that one Omaha-based electoral vote in Nebraska)…

we still lose in the electoral college, 272-266.  And that’s with reapportionment factored in.

Therefore, just ONE other state puts us over the top, and I think that’s where the battle lines will be drawn.  We will need to win one of the following Obama states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, or Maine.

Those ten states.  We win one — we win the election.  But, can we?