Diary

Double Digit Leads for the GOP in Virginia

Another poll, this one from SurveyUSA, shows all three of Virginia’s GOP statewide candidates with double digit leads over their Democratic challengers.

This one has strong favorable numbers for McDonnell — showing him essentially tied with Deeds in the Democrats’ Northern Virginia base, for example.

But more compelling for me are the down ticket races. The LTG race, for example:

Incumbent Republican Bill Bolling is today elected to a second term, defeating Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 54% to 41%. Bolling led nine weeks ago by 12, led four weeks ago by 10, leads today by 13. The Republican has momentum in Central VA. The Democrat is making inroads, though still trailing, in Southeast VA.

And the AG race:

Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli today defeats Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 53% to 42%. The Republican has never polled less than 53%. The Democrat has never polled more than 42%.

No matter how the numbers are sliced in this particular sample, they all look good for the Republicans…and for Ken, who was rumored to be expendable if things got rough close to the election, they have to be particularly satisfying.

And is former Democratic Gov. Doug Wilder’s non-endorsement playing any role yet? Possibly. McDonnell, Bolling and Cuccinelli are polling 24, 18 and 20 percent, respectively, among black voters. An early September SurveyUSA poll found the same candidates polling 18, 14 and 22 percent, respectively, in this category.

While this trend seems to be positive so far, there may be more to come…all thanks to Creigh Deeds’ dropping the ball with black voters:

Deeds had problems even before Wilder’s snub. He has failed to energize the black electorate he desperately needs to win. On Thursday, the noises from the Richmond Crusade for Voters weren’t encouraging.

Crusade President Antione Green said Wilder’s gambit would have an impact on the group’s endorsement.

“Governor Wilder still has a loyal base of support among the Crusade membership,” Green said. “I’m hearing from Crusaders and many people who voted for Obama and who are Democrats who want to see Deeds do more.”

But it’s among independents that the numbers are most telling. McDonnell leads Deeds 59-35 in this group, with Bolling leading Wagner 60-31 and Cuccinelli over Shannon 53-36. Earlier in the month, independents supported McDonnell 52-41, Bolling 53-39 and Cuccinelli 49-42.  In other words, national Democrats continue to scare the bee-jeebers out of the commonwealth’s independent voters.

Unless those numbers start moving the other direction soon, November 3rd may be a somber day, indeed, for Virginia’s Democrats.

Not to mention for Barack, Nancy, Harry and their mad-cap plans for America.