Diary

Creigh Deeds Swamping McAuliffe, Moran in Dem Primary

Democrats will finally select their gubernatorial nominee tomorrow and until recently, the smart money was on former Clinton bag-man Terry McAuliffe to win.

So this has to count as stunning news:

Deeds is now at 40%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 26% and Brian Moran at 24%. In the last week Deeds has gained 13 points while McAuliffe and Moran have each advanced by just two.

Deeds now leads in every region of the state except Hampton Roads, including a 38-35 lead over Moran in northern Virginia, where just two and a half weeks ago Deeds was polling at only 11%. Deeds is up over 50% in the parts of the state outside Washington DC/Richmond/Hampton Roads.

That’s Sen. Creigh Deeds of Bath county, a spot that, until recently, Terry McAuliffe and a number of other Beltway folks couldn’t have found without a map.

It’s also the same Creigh Deeds who narrowly lost to Republican Bob McDonnell by a scant 323 votes in the 2005 attorney general contest.

If Tuesday’s results actually follows what the latest polls are saying, then there are a number of lessons that could be drawn…from the reluctance of folks to plump for an obvious carpetbagging, that gobs and gobs of money can’t buy success, that negative campaigning in a three-way contest can backfire and that yes, the endorsements of media organs like the Washington Post still matter.

But we’ll just have to wait and see what happens, because in a low turnout affair (which this will be), anything is possible.

Still…it looks like Deeds wins. If so, then it may just be 2005 all over again in the commonwealth.