What Comes After Frederick?

Jim Hoeft at Bearing Drift has the text of a letter from Bill Howell, Kirk Cox and Sam Nixon asking that Jeff Frederick be removed as RPV chairman.

While I continue to find the public release of such letters entertaining, and useful, they do serve their intended purpose: tightening the noose around Frederick.

Erick makes a case that Shaun Kenney would be a solid replacement for Frederick. While I can’t disagree with the choice (Shaun is about as conservative as they come, in spite of that five o’clock shadow), I’m not sure that those baying for Frederick’s head (for the second time in four months) have given the matter that much thought. They are in the position of the dog who chases a truck and then catches it. What does that ol’ dog do now?

Many names have been floated, including that of Tom Davis (which is a non-starter).  And more will be…some of them quite interesting and even energizing.

However, that a replacement will be a conservative ought to be taken as a given.  And the one person who will most likely influence that choice is Attorney General candidate Ken Cuccinelli.

Already known as one of the most tenacious, and successful, campaigners in the state, Cuccinelli is a champion both to fiscal and social conservatives.  But more importantly, he has been very successful, so far, in gathering delegates to the GOP convention where the AG nominee will be chosen.  By his count, Cuccinelli nabbed roughly 70 percent from that treasure-trove of votes, Fairfax county. If he manages to rack-up numbers even remotely close to that statewide, not only will he succeed in being the AG nominee, but it will be his delegates who will hold the RPV chairmanship in their hands.

And make no mistake — those delegates will be overwhelmingly conservative.

The big donors and old guard never liked Frederick. They’ve made their choice and probably played a lead role in starting this second (and most likely successful) move to oust him as chairman.

But big donors and the old guard don’t have the same sort of boots on the ground that someone like Cuccinelli can muster (which may explain why some of them aren’t too keen on Ken, either).

And if the Cuccinelli army shows up at the convention — and the indications right now that they are — then not only will there be a change in who runs the burned-out hulk of the RPV, but there may be a greater, and more conservative, wave sweeping through the wider party.