First, I would like to extend a sincere thank-you to my detractors. You were quite correct…I did make an error. In my first post on the subject, I incorrectly typed in a value from the wrong cell in my spreadsheet. Instead of Romney needing 663 hard delegates, he needs 608. Other than a miss-read, my calculations are still correct.
Now I don’t know if Romney has already been awarded Party and Committee delegates (there are 69 of these), so let’s pretend they haven’t been awarded:
Romney currently has 536 hard delegates and needs another 608 to win the nomination outright.
If Romney gets 45% of the remaining 869 delegates from upcoming state and district primaries, plus all 69 Party and Committee delegates, he ends up with a total of (536 + 460) = 996 delegates.
If Romney gets 60% of the remaining 869 delegates from upcoming state and district primaries, plus all 69 Party and Committee delegates, he ends up with a total of (536 + 590) = 1126 delegates.
Romney is still shy necessary delegates even if he gets 60% of the remaining state and district delegates plus all 69 Party and Committee delegates.
How is Romney going to pull this off if he consistently struggles to get his poll numbers above 44%?
Maybe the RNC can just “deem” Romney the nominee – or he might buy every delegate a nice sandwich.