Diary

The numbers are NOT with Mitt

Mitt Romney must win over 60% of all remaining hard delegates to secure the GOP nomination. Surprised?

19 states still need to be heard from, and of those states 869 hard delegates are available at the state and district level (discounting the 37 total delegates available between Indiana and Arkansas, which have proportionality rules only a democrat could love). State and committee GOP delegates number about 69, which I’m throwing into my calculations as a given for Romney.

Nevertheless, Romney still needs 663 delegates to reach that magic 1144 number.

Can he do it?

Of the 11,280,792 votes cast so far, Romney has accumulated 4,595,908 or only about 41%. Typically, Romney does not garner more than an average of 44% of the vote. Santorum averaged about 25% of the vote. Even if half of Santorum’s supporters vote for Mitt, this still does not give him the necessary 60+ % to secure the GOP nomination.

[All data from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html].