Diary

McCain's Supporters Are Hidden by Polls

Many of you have spent the last 9 days following a predictable sequence of denial, anger, blame-throwing, and despair. You’re old enough and smart enough to know when a candidate has turned into a dog and McCain, you say, is a dog.

I disagree. And I’ll tell you why.

If McCain’s support could be measured accurately by opinion polls, I would join you in your pity-party. McCain wasn’t my favorite Republican in the brutal primary campaign this year, Mitt Romney was. But I still saw the enormous differences between McCain and his democratic rivals and I held out hope and belief that McCain would triumph in November.

Since the GOP Convention, I’ve watched McCain’s campaign drop precipitously in the polls. We’ve all known that Obama’s poll numbers are juiced. But we assumed that this would only account for a 2%-3% advantage, not a 7% to 10% advantage.

I’ve already explored how Obama’s poll numbers gave his New Hampshire supporters a false sense of security (see my last diary, entitled “Poll Junkies: Please Check Out this Review of the 2004 Election”).

Now I will show you how McCain’s poll numbers are deceptively low even as Obama’s are deceptively high.

Exhibit A: the 2008 California Republican Primary

McCain wasn’t expected to win this one convincingly. The polls showed him leading Romney by 1% or trailing Romney by up to 7%. He ended up beating my candidate, the Mittster, by 7%. Depending on which polls you believe, that’s a 6% to 14% swing.

Compare McCain’s results with the polls taken during the last six days before the California Republican Primary:

Primary Results

Sampling Size: 2,351,930

February 5, 2008 John McCain 41.9%, Mitt Romney 34.1%, Mike Huckabee 11.6%, Rudy Giuliani 4.9%, Ron Paul 4.2%, Fred Thompson 1.9%, Duncan Hunter 0.5%, Tom Tancredo 0.1%, Other 0.6%

Polls taken from February 2nd through February 4th:

Poll #1: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

Sampling Size: 833 // (Margin of Error: ±3.4%)

February 3-4, 2008

Mitt Romney 40%, John McCain 33%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 3%, Other 4%, Undecided 8%

Poll #2: Survey USA

Sampling Size: 556 // (Margin of Error: ±4.2%)

February 3-4, 2008

John McCain 39%, Mitt Romney 38%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 5%, Undecided 2%

Poll #3: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

Sampling Size: 915 // (Margin of Error: ±3.3%)

February 1-3, 2008

Mitt Romney 40%, John McCain 32%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 4%, Undecided 8%

Poll #4: Rasmussen Reports

Sampling Size: 652 // (Margin of Error: ±4%)

February 2, 2008

John McCain 38%, Mitt Romney 38%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Ron Paul 6%, Other 6%, Undecided 2%

Poll #5: American Research Group

Sampling Size: 600 // (Margin of Error: ±4%)

February 1-2, 2008

Mitt Romney 33%, John McCain 32%, Mike Huckabee 16%, Ron Paul 8%, Other/Undecided 11%

Poll #5: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

Sampling Size: 1185 // (Margin of Error: ±2.9%)

January 31 – February 2, 2008

Mitt Romney 37%, John McCain 34%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 5%, Other/Undecided 13%

(Wikipedia has a nice collection of archived opinion polls and primary results.)

Note: a similar poll-to-results disparity was seen in this year’s Republican Primary in Florida.

Conclusion: Don’t count McCain out. Don’t accede to the office bully who is now boasting about President Obama. If Obama wins this year, we can look forward to at least 4 years of liberal court-packing and an outright surrender to the Jihadists. Not to mention what Obama’s policies would do to the current emigration of jobs from the United States.

Put your McCain sign in your yard. Put the sticker on your car. McCain didn’t give up when the VC threatened to beat him to death, we can hang in there for McCain for 30 more days.

There will be no retreat in the war on terror!