With Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann winning the recent Republican Iowa straw poll and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty dropping out of the presidential race, the primary field is starting to shake out. Expect more dropouts soon.
Candidates like former Pennsylvania US senator Rick Santorum are not running well and neither is Newt Gingrich, who shot himself in the foot from the start. It’s an unfortunate turn of events for a conservative fount like Newt.
Congressman Ron Paul suffers from a weird cult reputation, which is not unearned. Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman is not a serious factor. Herman Cain has never had much impact even though he is a good conservative. So that leaves three major figures standing – Bachmann; newly announced Texas governor Rick Perry; and Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
And Perry is surging. Even in the Iowa poll Perry actually beat Romney even though Perry wasn’t even officially in the race. That speaks volumes. So if you want to do a little wagering about who will be the Republican nominee and then the next President of the United States, put your money on Perry. Consider the facts:
*The primary electorate in the Republican party is as conservative as it has ever been with the rise of the Tea Party. This favors a manly, conservative, free-market, God-n’-guns candidate like Perry and is not a good sign for Romney, who is liberal and who often seems weak, effeminate and affected.
*Romney may have high name recognition from his 2008 run, but his longevity may work against him as in “Oh, yeah, Romney. He’s still around…”
*Romney stepped down as the ineffective governor of Massachusetts after just one term to run for president. Perry is still in office after more than 10 years. Perry can hammer Romney on this point.
*Even if Romney wins the crucial primary in New Hampshire, which is next-door to Massachusetts, that will not seal the deal for him. It will be seen as a regional victory that is expected. Any really good showing by Perry in New Hampshire will hurt Romney badly.
*Congresswoman Bachmann is a good conservative but she lacks the kind of managerial record that Perry has as a governor. Perry is one of the longest-serving governors in American history, having taken the reins from George W. Bush in December 2000. And his record is still strong and he is still popular among Texans. He will draw conservative primary voters away from Bachmann. Because conservatives may not yet be ready for a woman president when they have a “real man” in the race.
*Perry can point to the excellent economic record of Texas. This is going to reassure all voters. Romney has no such record; Massachusetts is an economic mess with homosexual marriage and ObamaCare Lite thanks to Romney. Meanwhile Bachmann has only been a congresswoman, not a decision-making governor.
Here is how Perry then can proceed to the White House after winning the nomination:
*Obama’s economic approach has failed. This obviously is the Big Advantage for Perry.
*Perry can contrast two states – Obama’s home state of Illinois, which is a financial shambles and which is shot through with corruption, and Perry’s Texas which has the strongest economy in the nation and a can-do attitude about just about everything.
*Perry can subtly contrast his whole persona against Obama, his background and his experience as a “real American”. Perry was an Eagle Scout as a boy and he served in the US Air Force, while Obama studied in an Islamic school in Indonesia and went to Harvard.
*Perry can highlight his genuine Christian faith versus Obama’s faux faith. The media will do everything they can to marginalize Perry on this count precisely as Christian conservatives are energizing themselves like no time since the 1980s.
*Americans are going to have a clear choice because Perry represents certain values that most Americans carry in their hearts – the desire for smaller government; the belief that America can be great again; and the idea that America indeed is an exceptional place, something Obama clearly does not believe.
So voters will be left with a choice: Should I see the nation optimistically or pessimistically? Because Obama’s vision is a sour type of Democrat pessimism with only more and more failed government spending as the solution, while Perry’s vision is Reagan Optimism or Texas Confidence in the power of the people to re-make the nation person by person.
But to Democrats, faith and optimism are irrelevant. Because they believe that all problems are financial and material, not spiritual. The state of the nation, however, proves that the material approach is not working, that the nation indeed is in a moral crisis as well as a financial one. And that perception will redound to the benefit of Rick Perry.
Please visit my website at www.nikitas3.com for more conservative insights.