Report from Massachusetts: Brown Will Win

Just one year after the historic inauguration of Barack Obama as president of the United States, Republican Scott Brown appears poised to win, in a special election on Tuesday, the Massachusetts US Senate seat held for 47 years by Democrat Ted Kennedy. And to lose the most liberal seat from the most liberal state will be a huge blow to Obama and the Democrats.


Over the last few days, I have been holding Brown for Senate campaign signs by the side of the road here in Massachusetts. Enthusiasm for Brown is very high. For a politician who was virtually unknown just two months ago, my anecdotal experience is that there is an unusually strong outpouring of support for. I got honks and thumbs-up from people constantly. A few stopped and asked for signs and bumper stickers. You would think I was holding out a Kennedy sign.


And those were people whom you could assume already were supporting Brown. There obviously is room for Brown to gain among undecideds as well.


On the other hand, the much smaller number of reactions that I got from die-hard Democrat voters – it was probably 10 positive for Brown for every one negative – exposes the difference between the two parties: While Brown supporters were smiling and upbeat, some Democrats responded with angry faces, curses, obscene gestures and even tongues stuck out. It shows the liberals angry, scared and immature, as usual.


What does this anecdotal evidence show?


It exposes Obama and the Democrat agenda for what it truly is. Even some so-called ‘Reagan Democrats’ and other Democrats from all over the spectrum are said in polls to be favoring Brown, while the tally among independent voters is said to be 3 to 1 or more for Brown. And of course Republicans and conservatives will vote in force for Brown. Bellwether towns like Fitchburg and Peabody are polling strongly for Brown.


And nowhere was Brown opponent Martha Coakley, the current Massachusetts attorney general, more complacent than in resting on her laurels after the primary, assured that the Democrat always wins.


Brown, on the other hand, campaigned vigorously and has made zero mistakes. He is tall and handsome and people like him. He is an everyday guy. He began surging as Obama’s health-care agenda was sinking. Brown is running on opposition to the plan and he alone can stop it by being the 41st Republican cloture vote.


Coakley has been a terrible candidate. In the final debate, Coakley said that she did not believe that there were terrorists left in Afghanistan while in the same debate, Brown boldly told moderator David Gergen that “With all due respect, it is not the Kennedy seat, it’s not the Democrat’s seat. It’s the people’s seat,” when Gergen asked Brown if he could vote against the health-care bill while sitting in the Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy for almost five decades.


Because even here in Massachusetts – the home of the American Revolution and the Boston Tea Party – many voters are reacting unfavorably to the notion that the Democrats somehow are entitled to hold onto the seat.


Brown’s boldness has energized his supporters. Because while this is called a liberal state with a 3 to 1 Democrat margin in voter registration over Republicans, the total registration of independents plus Republicans is 64%. And the November 3 elections in New Jersey and Virginia showed independents abandoning Obama and the Democrats in droves, while independents are said to be fired up in Massachusetts.  


Perhaps the other turning point for Coakley was her trip to Washington, DC for a fundraiser with pharmaceutical lobbyists. She was photographed looking on as one of her campaign aides knocked a nosy reporter to the sidewalk. That was The Picture that Flashed Around the World, and was highly unflattering to Coakley.


Polls are showing Brown surging right at the end when Coakley does not have the time to regroup. At the beginning of January, the Boston Globe poll had her up by 15 points. Obama came to Boston on Sunday to campaign for her. But Obama was between a rock and a hard place because he campaigned repeatedly for Democrat governor Jon Corzine in liberal New Jersey and Corzine still lost.


If Obama had declined to come to Massachusetts, however, he would have been seen as fearing a New Jersey repeat. But his presence risks the Corzine Effect, where voters are reminded of why they do not trust the Democrats.


On the same day as Obama’s appearance, Brown held a huge rally in Worcester, a blue-collar city. Just the fact that a Republican could turn out such a crowd in Massachusetts is certainly disconcerting to Democrats. Appearing for Brown were Boston baseball and football stars including Red Sox great Curt Schilling, actor John Ratzenberger (Cliff Clavin on the Boston-based 1990s comedy Cheers) and Brown’s own daughter, who was an American Idol star.


Then Coakley gave a radio interview and did not even know that Schilling had played for the Red Sox! This is heresy in Massachusetts, and an eye-rolling moment for thousands of voters, the type of social gaffe that is unforgivable here.


There also is yet another small problem for Coakley. The independent candidate in the race is named Joe Kennedy. So some Democrats will vote for him thinking he is from the Kennedy family, which he is not, siphoning off more Coakley votes.


The word “groundswell” is everywhere for Brown. Out here in Western Massachusetts, there are Brown signs all over and few for Coakley. Across the state, it is being reported that there are roadside rallies all over with Brown banners abounding.


Has Scott Brown won the hearts and minds of Massachusetts, and perhaps of America?


Indeed. I am predicting a Brown victory of 5 points. Already polls are showing Brown either way ahead by as much as 9 points, ahead, or tied. But the polls severely underestimated Republican/conservative strength in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections of November 3, 2009. Fact is, there is a big shift going on in the American electorate after one year of Obama, something you can’t necessarily measure with a poll, but something that is significant and genuine. And it is going to manifest itself with a victory for Scott Brown and a huge Democrat defeat in the mid-term elections next November.


Note: We held a big Scott Brown rally on Monday at Park Square in Pittsfield. There were probably 75 Brown supporters in attendance. As it turns out, Coakley was appearing just around the corner at the American Legion. We went in force and showed our support for Scott Brown. Typically two Democrat operatives were filming us as part of their usual attempted intimidation tactics. So I asked them to stop filming me, but they continued. I had a friend videotape the exchange when I asked them to stop. I will be looking into the legality of their actions. We need to stop this type of intimidation.


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