I haven’t had a lot to report on the Jim Cramer front for a little while as the Mad Money host’s mood seems to swing very much in line with the stock market. When it’s down, he’s angry, when it’s up, he’s ebullient. I suppose that’s only natural for a professional investor like himself, but he seems to live that song by Billy Joel and goes to extremes.
Even though I’m labeling this a “non” remorse episode for Cramer, he’s not totally out in left field in his column this afternoon, as you might glean from its title, “The Market Repudiates Obama”. Basically, he’s choosing to see the recent rally in the stock market as a sign that Obama is losing. Obamacare is dead, Cap and Trade is seriously on the defensive, with card check the next domino to fall — that’s Cramer’s takeaway from the 700 point gain we’ve seen from the Dow in the past week and a half.
So ironically, Cramer is sounding more optimistic than Limbaugh and Hannity about where the political battle stands. And make no mistake, it’s true optimism on Cramer’s part; even if he doesn’t have an objection on principle to what Obama wants to do, he knows that there are economic consequences that we absolutely cannot afford in a weak economy.
Of course, Cramer doesn’t seem to get the Rahm Emanuel thesis of “never let a crisis go to waste”, in order words, it is precisely when the chips are down that changes of the radical nature that Obama is pushing become politically possible. Or to put it another way, if times were such that Cramer would judge that we could “afford” Obamacare, card check and all the rest, there simply wouldn’t be enough agitation for massive changes to get them passed.
But it’s the money quote that is the most off-putting:
In fact, I am sure some feel this rally will ultimately be deemed the “Obama’s a moderate” rally, made moderate by members of Congress who aren’t as safe in their districts as Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) is in hers.
In other words, Cramer thinks Obama will be forced to bow to political reality and actually govern as the moderate he portrayed himself as when he was Candidate Obama.
To which I say: Objection, Your Honor. Presuming facts not in evidence.
Obama simply doesn’t strike me as the kind of man who bows to anything (apart from maybe a Saudi king), and that goes for so-called “political reality” too. His words might change, but will he? Not counting on it!
It’s possible that for once Cramer is ahead of the curve and has successfully predicted the outcome of the current political battles more boldly than even Rush. But frankly, I’ll put more stock (pardon the expression) in the opinions of those who didn’t push for Obama’s election in the first place.