I have a theory. I believe that any state that doesn’t show Barack Obama above 50% by election day will be won by John McCain. This election is quickly turning into a referendum on Obama, and when that happens, he tends to massively underperform.
This means McCain carries the states of Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania (two new polls show him at 47-49) and MAYBE Minnesota.
What does this mean for Election day?
McCain: 273 EV’s (plus maybe 10 for MN)Obama: 265 EV’s