Diary

Someone here should be watching this...

I just stumbled across an audit of voting tallies at thedonald.win.  What they are doing is auditing vote tally updates.  Each update is a cumulative total of votes cast, plus cumulative percentage of votes for Biden and Trump.  What they are finding is that the total votes for Trump is being systematically decreased.  You don’t see it on cursory inspection, you just see Biden’s percent total slowly increasing and Trump’s slowly going down.  This of course would appear natural if votes were trending for Biden.  Here is an example of how the data looks:

Sample Vote Tally Data Set

Here it is in table form:

Data Set Total Votes Trump Share Biden Share
27 573857 0.578 0.401
28 574417 0.568 0.406

So a new set of votes came in, more for Biden than Trump, so Biden’s share goes up and Trump’s goes down.  The odd behaviour is apparent when actual vote totals are tabulated::

Data Set Total Votes Trump Share Biden Share Trump Total Biden Total
27 573857 0.578 0.401 331689.3 230116.7
28 574417 0.568 0.406 326268.9 233213.3

Trump’s cumulative total went down!  They are running this audit everywhere and finding similar circumstances everywhere.  This isn’t happening in one or two data sets, it is happening everywhere.  It is exactly what you would do if you wanted to flip an election – make small changes everywhere that appear to support a larger trend.  If the data set is valid (which I don’t exactly know), someone has alot of explaining to do…

Having gone through the data a bit, it appears to be legit.  The source data is simply a dump from the NY Times website and contains about 80% unrelated data.  i.e. they downloaded an archived page that contained the data voting time-series along with a bunch of other information.  Also, it appears that there are quite a few switches from Biden to Trump in the data.  But, what is heavily one-sided is vote-counts switched from 3rd-party to Biden.  Those numbers are huge.  Here are a few examples:

State   3rd-Party to Trump 3rd-Party to Biden
Michigan   24,631   124,803
Ohio   2324   38,684
Georgia   11,291   81,792
Wisconsin   8356   47,767
Arizona   1243   29,120
California   21092   129,895
Florida   39,439   156,936
Pennsylvania   6917   202,664

 

How is there not a single instance of more 3rd-party votes getting flipped to Trump than to Biden?