Tracking Coronavirus Fatalities, 06/20 Update

Tracking Coronavirus Fatalities, 06/20 Update
AP Photo/Jim Mone

This is a continuing update to prior posts comparing coronavirus fatalities to weekly death certificate counts published by the CDC.  For a full explanation of the method, reference prior posts here, here, and here.

Here is the update on the weekly deaths.  Weekly deaths are now just hitting ‘normal’ level.  Of course, this data lags by a month, so ‘now’ is May 16th.


Next is the graph comparing total excessive deaths from death certificate tracking to CDC and NY Times coronavirus death tallies:


We are still in the curious condition of death certificate tracking indicating more deaths that both the CDC & NY Times.  There is a possible explanation for some of the discrepancy.  There was a small spike of pneumonia deaths (2800-3800 increase) coincidental with the peak in covid-19 deaths.  Approximately 60% of people who die from covid-19 are also diagnosed with pneumonia.  This small spike is probably improperly diagnosed patients who had both but were only listed as having pneumonia on their death certificate.

Before I go into weekly deaths, here is infections vs deaths, and mortality.  These charts are solely based on NY Times data.  There is almost no correlation anymore between infections and deaths.  I’ve been assured by medical professionals that the tests work…



So finally, here is the latest weekly deaths, CDC vs NY Times vs Death Certificate Tracking.  Remember, the difference in total deaths between death certificate tracking and NY Times / CDC is only about 6000 deaths and can be partially explained.  But, the divergence in shapes is extremely odd:


The problem with this divergence in shape is best shown in this chart.  It simply takes the difference between total deaths and covid-19 deaths to show total non-covid-19 deaths:


The biggest oddity in this chart is the spike in deaths in March not attributed to Covid-19.  What killed all those people?  Is it a massive undercount?  Something else?  I have a number of theories.  All have bad implications.  I’m going to wait a couple weeks before posting any of them.  The longer the divergence lasts, the more obvious the problem will get.

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